Ryan Smith, WR/PR/KR, North Dakota State: FCS Division

Positives: Runs with above-average speed and quickness. Adequate acceleration off the line and after the catch. When running routes, he is fairly quick in and out of his breaks. Above-average hands and extends and adjusts fairly well to catch passes away from his frame. Doesn’t let passes get to his body. Tracks passes over his inside shoulder fairly well. Shows good effort on off-target passes. Okay concentration in traffic. Above-average vision for yards after the catch. Reads downfield blocks well. Makes consistently smart punt return and kick return fielding decisions, and has reliable hands enough that he isn’t afraid to field the ball in traffic. Gets upfield quickly on returns and doesn’t waste much motion.

Negatives: Short for the position and has a slight build. Though his breaks are quick, he isn’t very deceptive in his route running – runs with flailing arms that telegraph his routes. Below-average tracking over outside shoulder. Suspect concentration when a hit is coming. Sometimes is late to look for the ball on deep routes. Below-average upper-body strength.

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Bruce Ellington, WR/KR, South Carolina

49ers, Round 4. Was a junior. Cousin of Andre Ellington, running back for the Cardinals. He went pretty much exactly where I expected him to, in the beginning of the 4th round. Good ball skills, athleticism and route running give him a good shot at being a fairly immediate starter. And he has the toughness to fit in on a team with Anquan Boldin. Would be difficult enough to cover out of the slot, but is physical enough to play an outside receiver spot, too.

Positives: Though he is short for the position, he has adequate bulk, and is proportioned like a running back. Above-average hand size. Runs with good speed and quickness, and accelerates off the line quickly. Above-average route runner who is crisp in his breaks. Adjusts his routes well to keep an angle on the ball in the air. Shows good hands and can extend and snag passes away from his frame. Good concentration and body control, and adjusts to off-target and tipped passes very well. Tracks passes well over both his inside and outside shoulders. Not afraid to go over the middle and holds the ball with a big hit. Above-average balance both on the sidelines and after contact. Willing to get in the way as a downfield blocker. Generally very athletic and versatile, and was a wildcat quarterback for the team and the point guard on his college basketball team. Even threw a touchdown in the 2013 bowl game. Above-average track speed for the position. Adequate upper body strength. 6 good vertical leap, lateral quickness, and ability to change directions in Combine testing.

Negatives: Short for the position. Makes suspect decisions as a kick returner. Though a willing blocker, he’s not a good one – gets caught flat footed and doesn’t maintain blocks. Injured his hamstring in Summer 2013 and missed a few weeks.

Projection: Has the potential to put up WR2 numbers. Draftable late in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.

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Brandin Cooks, WR/PR, Oregon State

Saints, Round 1. Was projected pretty universally to go in the late first round as the fourth receiver overall, and that’s where he went. It’s just that nobody expected his team to be the Saints. Probably becomes the second or third wide receiver on the team, behind Kenny Stills and Marques Colston (until his leg falls off). He’s also behind Jimmy Graham on the pecking order. But, as much as Brees spreads the ball around, he’s likely to get a lot of targets anyway. Reminds me a lot of Jarrett Dillard, who was a super-athletic smaller wide receiver with a lot of speed, quickness, and ball skills whose career never took off due to injuries and, well, the Jaguars. With his lack of size, Cooks’s career could see the same flat trajectory. Or maybe he’s a Desean Jackson.

Positives: Though he’s a smaller receiver, he’s well built. Above-average hand size. Runs with great track speed and above-average game speed and very good quickness and acceleration off the line and after the catch. Very good stop-and-start ability. Runs good routes, and is very quick in and out of his breaks, getting good separation from defenders. Above-average hands and concentration – even on passes in traffic. Extends and adjusts very well for off-target passes and passes away from his frame, and can snag passes at their highest point. Shows good effort on errant passes and will go to the ground for the catch. Shows above-average body control to come down with off-target passes and is nimble on the sidelines. Good vertical leap, and can go up and get the pass – very effective in jump-ball situations despite his height. Good open-field vision and elusiveness for yards after the catch and is patient as a runner, waiting for blockers. Makes generally smart punt-return fielding decisions. Good downfield blocker despite his size. Smart receiver. Very agile and can reset his feet after being knocked off balance quickly. Adequate upper body strength. Very good lateral quickness and ability to change directions in Combine drills. Tough — though he’s been injured, he’s never missed a game.

Negatives: Short for the position, with below-average bulk. Ankle and knee injuries in 2012 slowed him down for a while. Not very strong, and will probably have trouble with physical defenders if they can stay with him. Injured ribs in September 2013, and it seem to hamper his ball security.

Projection: I expect him to put up immediate WR3 numbers and could eventually grow into a WR2, though his ceiling is probably limited by the way Brees consistently uses every receiver on the field. Draftable high in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.

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Jarvis Landry, WR, Louisiana State

Dolphins, Round 2. Was a junior. I was lower on Landry than most before the draft, ranking him as the 15th-best WR available. He went as the 12th WR. But being the 12th WR taken in this draft class is a feather in his cap. He goes to a Dolphins team that has Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline as the leading receivers, and he should line up with them right away.

Positives: above-average bulk for his height and the position. Solid build. Great hand size. Runs with above-average speed. Shows above-average routes, running smoothly and crisply, getting positioning on cornerbacks well. Generally good hands, and can extend for passes away from his frame. Shows fair effort on off-target passes and will go to the ground for the catch. Has quick feet and is dangerous after the catch. Runs tough after the catch and isn’t afraid of contact. When contact happens, he is able to regain balance easily. Gets upfield quickly after catching the ball. Above-average run blocker who is willing to get physical and sacrifice his body.

Negatives: slightly below-average height for the position. Has a hard time with press coverage. Below-average focus – will try to make one-handed catch when it isn’t necessary or will turn upfield to get yards before securing the pass. On contested passes, he needs to be more aggressive and fight for the ball. Below-average ball security. Though he’s a willing blocker, he needs work on his technique and strength, and seems to be easy to push back. Below-average upper body strength. Poor track speed, vertical leap and general lower body explosiveness in Combine testing due to tight hamstring.

Projection: If they use him out of the slot, he should be super-effective since he won’t have to deal with press coverage. But the team’s general offensive mediocrity will probably hold him back for a while. Draft as a WR4 with WR2 upside.

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Odell Beckham, Jr., WR/KR/PR, Louisiana State

Giants, Round 1. There was little surprise about where he went in the draft. He was generally considered the third-best WR in the draft and the Giants needed a WR to pair with Cruz and Randle. He also gives them a nice option at punt returner.

Positives: adequate bulk for the position. Above-average hand size. Above-average vertical leap and general lower body explosiveness. Very good lateral quickness and excellent ability to change directions in Combine drills. Runs with above-average speed and quickness and changes directions well. Difficult to get a hand on in the open field. Pretty good route runner who gets good inside positioning on slant patterns right off the line. Has good, strong and quick hands and is able to extend to snag passes away from his frame. Also has the concentration to be able to make the one-hand catch. Gives good effort on errant passes and will dive and go to ground for the reception. Above-average balance after contact and isn’t afraid to get physical with defenders. Good sense of where the first-down marker is. Works back to quarterback in trouble. Reliable PR hands – even under pressure. Heads upfield quickly on returns and has good vision that lets him pick his way through traffic. Willing downfield blocker. Tracks well over his outside shoulder.

Negatives: Very weak upper body. Slightly below-average height for the position. Runs a little out of control at times and will lose his balance making cuts with the ball in his hand. Makes consistently risky decisions as a punt returner and will try to field and return a ball on a bounce in traffic.

Projection: Expect him to put up immediate WR2 numbers and potentially low WR1 numbers by year two – if Eli Manning’s skills don’t completely fall off the cliff. He’s worth a top-five pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

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Ranking the RBs in the 2014 NFL Draft

Rankings are as of July 30, 2014.

In fantasy leagues, the ideal running back is one who can do it all – be a workhorse runner, catch everything thrown to him, can block, isn’t taken off the field for third downs. Basically, a guy who gets 25 touches per game, a touchdown or two, and 120 total yards or more.

That guy doesn’t really exist anymore.

Instead, fantasy football GMs (and real-life ones, too) have to find a mix of running backs that fits their system and can do exactly what needs to be done when they’re on the field. The power back who can run 10 times a game in short-yardage and goal-line situations and soften the defense the rest of the time. The smaller back for third-and-long catches and runs to the outside. The in-betweener who can do a little of everything but isn’t strong enough to handle a full workload.

In the 2014 draft, there is only a handful of running backs who look like they’ll be able to handle anything close to workhorse duties, then there’s a long list of power backs and smaller backs best suited for committee duties.

For what it’s worth, Adam Muema WAS my top running back in this draft — until his “idiosyncracies” surfaced at the Combine. Now, he’s off the list completely. Now, we’re down to the top three on this list – Hill, Sankey and Carey – as the most (in my mind) likely to develop into RB1s for fantasy purposes. However, Hill and Carey both have some character concerns, and I simply don’t trust them to stay out of trouble and on the field. Bishop Sankey, though I have him ranked number two, isn’t someone I was particularly high on before the draft. But he’s in a perfect situation on the Titans and should get a lot of work right away.

After the top three is a block of backs, from Mason through Archer, who also have a lot of potential for fantasy success. Of this group, the most likely to develop into workhorses are West, Hyde, and Johnson. The rest will most likely be change-of-pace and committee backs who could put up RB2 numbers.

The next block probably runs from Andre Williams through Isaiah Crowell, and they are real wild cards whose production, I think, will really depend on the creativity of their offensive coordinator. As of now, they are probably the last group that I would draft in moderately-sized dynasty leagues.

After Crowell, there’s still a lot of talent, but there’s probably no need to draft them at all in fantasy. But keep an eye on them, because they have the talent to be contributors down the line. Of course, they could all be out of the league, too, the way the NFL devalues running backs.

So here’s my list:

  1. Jeremy Hill, Bengals
  2. Bishop Sankey, Titans
  3. Ka’Deem Carey, Bears
  4. Tre Mason, Rams
  5. Devonta Freeman, Falcons
  6. Carlos Hyde, 49ers
  7. Terrance West, Browns
  8. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens
  9. Storm Johnson, Jaguars
  10. Lache Seastrunk, Redskins
  11. Charles Sims, Buccaneers
  12. Dri Archer, Steelers
  13. De’Anthony Thomas, Chiefs
  14. James White, Patriots
  15. Andre Williams, Giants
  16. Kapri Bibbs, Broncos
  17. Isaiah Crowell, Browns
  18. Brennan Clay, Broncos
  19. Julius Watts “Trey”, Rams
  20. Jerick McKinnon, WR/RB, Vikings
  21. Tim Cornett, Texans
  22. Marion Grice, Chargers
  23. David Fluellen, Eagles
  24. Ben Malena, Cowboys
  25. Roy Finch, Patriots
  26. Darrin Reaves, Panthers
  27. Zurlon Tipton, Colts
  28. Raijon Neal, Packers
  29. Jerome Smith, Falcons
  30. James Wilder, Jr., Bengals
  31. Branden Oliver, Colts
  32. LaDarius Perkins, Packers
  33. Zach Bauman, Cardinals
  34. Silas Redd, Redskins
  35. Tim Flanders, Saints
  36. Juwan Thompson, Broncos
  37. Ryan Montague, Seahawks
  38. Terrance Cobb, Jaguars

Below are my rankings from right after the draft. Not much has changed.

  1. Jeremy Hill, Bengals
  2. Bishop Sankey, Titans
  3. Ka’Deem Carey, Bears
  4. Tre Mason, Rams
  5. Devonta Freeman, Falcons
  6. Carlos Hyde, 49ers
  7. Terrance West, Browns
  8. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Ravens
  9. Storm Johnson, Jaguars
  10. Lache Seastrunk, Redskins
  11. Charles Sims, Buccaneers
  12. De’Anthony Thomas, Chief
  13. James White, Patriots
  14. Dri Archer, Steelers
  15. Andre Williams, Giants
  16. Kapri Bibbs, Broncos
  17. Brennan Clay, Broncos
  18. Isaiah Crowell, Browns
  19. Julius Watts “Trey”, Rams
  20. Marion Grice, Chargers
  21. David Fluellen, Eagles
  22. Ben Malena, Cowboys
  23. Roy Finch, Patriots
  24. Darrin Reaves, Panthers
  25. Zurlon Tipton, Colts
  26. Raijon Neal, Packers
  27. Jerome Smith, Falcons
  28. James Wilder, Jr., Bengals
  29. Branden Oliver, Colts
  30. LaDarius Perkins, Packers
  31. Zach Bauman, Cardinals
  32. Tim Cornett, Cardinals
  33. Silas Redd, Redskins
  34. Tim Flanders, Saints
  35. Juwan Thompson, Broncos
  36. Alfred Blue, Texans
  37. Ryan Montague, Seahawks
  38. Terrance Cobb, Jaguars

For the record, here were my rankings before the draft:

  1. Jeremy Hill, Louisiana State
  2. Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona
  3. Tre Mason, Auburn
  4. Terrance West, Towson: FCS
  5. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
  6. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
  7. De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon
  8. Storm Johnson, Central Florida
  9. Devonta Freeman, Florida State
  10. James White, Wisconsin
  11. Charles Sims, West Virginia
  12. Dri Archer, Kent State
  13. Jerome Smith, Syracuse
  14. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Coastal Carolina: FCS
  15. Bishop Sankey, Washington
  16. Raijon Neal, Tennessee
  17. Andre Williams, Boston College
  18. Franklyn Quiteh, Bloomsburg: D2
  19. David Fluellen, Toledo
  20. Ben Malena, Texas A&M
  21. Roy Finch, Oklahoma
  22. LaDarius Perkins, Mississippi State
  23. Zach Bauman, Northern Arizona: FCS
  24. Kapri Bibbs, Colorado State
  25. Branden Oliver, Buffalo
  26. Trey Watts, Tulsa
  27. James Wilder, Jr., Florida State
  28. Tyler Gaffney, Stanford
  29. Antonio Andrews, Western Kentucky
  30. Tim Cornett, Nevada-Las Vegas
  31. Prince-Tyson Gulley, Syracuse
  32. Silas Redd, Southern California
  33. Jordan Hall, Ohio State
  34. Jeff Scott, Mississippi
  35. James Sims, Kansas
  36. Orleans Darkwa, Tulane
  37. John Spooney, Brown: FCS
  38. Zurlon Tipton, Central Michigan
  39. Tim Flanders, Sam Houston State: FCS
  40. Sam Ojuri, North Dakota State: FCS
  41. Brennan Clay, Oklahoma
  42. Anthony Wilkerson, Stanford
  43. Kiero Small, Arkansas
  44. Terrance Cobb, University of the Cumberlands: NAIA
  45. Ryan Montague, Louisiana College: D3
  46. Juwan Thompson, Duke
  47. Dominick Pierre, Dartmouth: FCS
  48. Damien Thigpen, UCLA
  49. Vintavious Cooper, East Carolina
  50. Tommy Gooden, Jackson State: FCS
  51. Dareyon Chance, Western Michigan
  52. Darreion Robinson, Georgia southern
  53. Aldreakis Allen, Liberty: FCS
  54. Waymon James, TCU
  55. Rondell White, West Chester: D2

 

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Devonta Freeman, RB, Florida State

Falcons, Round 4. Was a junior. He went as the eighth running back overall when I had him as the 9th, expected to go a round later. But he lands in a place where nobody’s obviously ahead of him, and he could either replace (or back up) either Steven Jackson or Jacquizz Rodgers as the workhorse or third-down back. For the most part, I like his combination of speed, quickness, and tough running. But his lack of size doesn’t combine well with his running style, and he seems like an injury risk to me. He has some Ray Rice in him, though, but I’m not sure if he has enough.

Positives: though his height and weight are low, he is compactly built. Above-average hand size. Runs with above-average speed, quickness, and change-of-direction ability. Adequate burst and vision for cutback lanes. Runs with good balance, agility, body lean and high knees – even when his body is getting low to the ground. Above-average balance after contact and isn’t knocked off of his feet easily. While making moves, he keeps his shoulders squared, letting him make balanced cuts and keep moving forward. Adequate ball-security technique and protects the ball while going through the line. Above-average hands, and is able to extend and adjust for off-target passes fairly well. Adequate track speed for the position.

Negatives: Short for the position, with slightly below-average bulk. Indecisive at times and will dance behind the line too much. Below-average pass blocker who looks uncomfortable doing so. Below-average vertical leap. Poor upper-body strength. Below average track speed for his size.

Projection: Expect immediate RB3 numbers with a potential of RB2 numbers. Draft in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts.

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Jerome Smith, RB, Syracuse

UDFA. Signed by the Falcons as a UDFA but was released in August and put on their practice squad. Was a redshirt junior. Is a good combination of size, speed, agility, and elusiveness, which should give him a good chance of success in a power running scheme or as a power component of a committee approach.

Positives: Good height and above-average bulk for the position — almost large enough to be a fullback. Above-average hand size. Runs with adequate speed and burst for his size. Above-average cutback vision. Fair agility and is able to hurdle would-be tacklers who go low on him. Can make people miss with subtle changes of direction – smoothly but not quickly. Very nice footwork for his size – quick feet and fair lateral movement. Shows good power and runs with good body lean. Keeps his legs churning through contact, with his shoulder pushing the pile. Good balance after contact. Adequate hands. Above-average vertical leap.

Negatives: Poor track speed for the position, and below-average even for his size. Surprisingly low upper body strength for his size. Pretty much strictly a north-south runner without the quickness to change directions, and doesn’t have the speed to bounce runs outside. Below-average ball-security technique, and tends to hold the ball too low through the line. A shoulder injury in his freshman year limited him to two games in 2010.

Projection: No need to draft him in dynasty rookie drafts, but keep an eye on him. If he lands in a situation where he could contribute as a power runner, he would be worth picking up and holding onto for a while.

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Prince-Tyson Gulley, RB, Syracuse

Positives: Runs with above-average speed and quickness. Has fairly quick feet and good balance making cuts. On slick surfaces, he can dig his foot into the ground and smoothly change direction. Runs with adequate power, and churns his legs through contact for extra yards. Shows above-average hands and looks passes into his hands. Can snag fast passes. Gets upfield quickly after the catch. Protects the ball going through the line. Is patient on kick returns.

Negatives: Below-average height and bulk for the position. Below-average concentration on easy receptions when a hit is coming, and may be contact shy. Has a fairly long injury history. Missed spring practices in 2013 with upper-body injury. Hard time getting off jams at the line. Seems to have a hard time following his blockers downfield.

Projection: UDFA. He does enough things well as a runner and receiver to get into a training camp, but I don’t see him being consistently successful in fantasy.

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Jordan Hall, RB/KR/PR, Ohio State

UDFA. Signed by the Steelers as UDFA in June but released in August. He probably doesn’t do anything well enough to be consistently successful in the NFL, and his injury history is a definite red flag.

Positives: Experienced as both a receiver and runner. Was often used as a wide receiver in college. Runs with adequate speed, burst, and cutback vision. Though not strong, he keeps his legs churning through contact for extra yards. Finishes runs strong on the sidelines and doesn’t just give up. Above-average hands and adjusts fairly well to errant passes.

Negatives: Below-average height and bulk for the position. Runs a little upright at times. Not much of a leaper on the goal line. Tore his foot tendon in July 2012 and had surgery, missing the first two games of the season. Then he tore his right knee PCL in late September 2012 and missed the rest of season. According to his coach, he has a chronic knee problem.

Projection: If he stays healthy and makes an NFL roster, I can see him being a part-time contributor as a return specialist. No need to draft him in fantasy, though.

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