Dynasty Draftnik

Adequate size. Average hand size. Short arms.

Positives: Adequate accuracy on timing routes and on the run. Above-average velocity and adequate arm strength. Knows when to throw ball away. Athleticism is his strong suit — likes to run and has very good speed and quickness for the position. Finishes runs strong.

Negatives: May take a while to adjust to pro offense. Comes from a spread system, and, though he is a fifth-year senior, he doesn’t have much starting experience. Often makes poor decisions and throws across his body on the run. Late recognition and also hesitates to make tough throws. Inconsistent mechanics. Needs to learn to vary velocity — tends to throw too hard on short passes. Eyeballs receivers consistently. Below-average deep accuracy.

Projection: Round 3. Is athletic and has some throwing ability, which is a good combo to have in today’s NFL, but he has the same problem a lot of QBs in this draft class have — poor decision making and doesn’t read defenses well. But some of that might clear up with more starting experience. Best-case scenario, he’s Ryan Tannehill. He’s probably nearly as good as a few of the guys I’ve rated above him — he just hasn’t had a chance to show it. Unfortunately, we won’t know until he hits the field again. Draft late based on upside and hope to be surprised.

Steelers, 4th round. Okla.: Very good size. Average hand size.

Positives: Though he comes from a spread system, it did contain some under-center plays. Above-average accuracy on short and medium throws. Throws a catchable pass with nice touch. Above-average arm and velocity. Fairly poised QB when in pocket and moves around well in pocket to keep plays alive. Can step up and slide laterally to avoid rush. Knows when to throw ball away. Adequate athleticism for his size.

Negatives: Comes out of a spread offense. Less accurate outside the pocket than within it. Deep passes are often inaccurate and tend to sail. Often overthrows receivers. Eyeballs receivers and throws into coverage often. Below-average throwing mechanics — doesn’t step into throws, has longish windup, has a 3/4 release, and often throws falling backward with no pressure. Seems indecisive throwing deep. Below-average ball security and fumbled twice without a hit in 2011 bowl game. Inconsistent footwork. Isn’t much of a runner and has below-average track speed.

Projection: Outside of a Ben Roethlisberger injury, he probably won’t ever be more than a backup. I expect him to be the team’s third QB in 2013 and the primary backup in 2014 and for several years. As oft-injured as Roethlisberger is, though, that could make Jones a solid handcuff eventually — but that’s the only reason to draft him.

Giants, 4th round. Syracuse: Adequate size. Good bulk for the height. Great hand size.

Positives: Nice touch overall and throws a very catchable pass. Adequate accuracy outside of pocket. Good arm strength. Quick release. Keeps eyes downfield when outside the pocket. Knows when to throw ball away. Looks like a tough runner with good speed.

Negatives: Comes from a spread system and may have trouble with pro style offense. Generally inaccurate. Below-average anticipation on timing routes. Below-average deep accuracy. Below-average accuracy on rollout and doesn’t set feet to throw outside pocket. Stares down receivers often. Below-average footwork and moves awkwardly around pocket. His feet tend to get crossed up when changing directions. Passes tend to get tipped. Looks skittish in pocket and shows poor overall athleticism. Not a smooth runner. Very poor ball security.

Projection: Before the draft, a lot of people were talking him up as a potential top-10 pick, but I see a guy who is a potentially solid backup. Most years, I’d list him as a 4th-rounder, and that’s where he went this year. He has some arm talent but isn’t athletic, doesn’t make good decisions, and has questionable accuracy — all bad traits in a pro QB. He’ll probably spend the year as the Giants’ third QB behind David Carr and become the backup in 2014 and beyond. Draft as a handcuff to Eli Manning, but don’t expect him to excel.

Buccaneers, 3rd round. N.C. St.: Very tall, with good bulk. Above-average hand size.

Positives: Comes from a pro style background. Good accuracy overall, with above-average accuracy on the run. Adequate deep touch and accuracy. Throws a very catchable pass with a nice spiral and touch. Adequate arm strength and velocity. Goes through progressions fairly consistently. Though he has little mobility, he can step up in the pocket under pressure. Stands tall in the pocket and can easily see the whole field.

Negatives: Below-average speed and poor athleticism. Streaky accuracy that trends bad when he lets his mechanics lapse. Can’t avoid rush — is a statue in the pocket and his feet don’t move much laterally. Though he can see the field, he has difficulty reading coverage. Below-average mechanics — consistently falls backward and throws off back foot. Often doesn’t step into throws, which causes his intermediate passes to die. Mostly throws underneath patterns and seldom over 15 yards. Poor speed.

Projection: In most years, he would probably be a 4th-rounder. But this is 2013, and teams like to overdraft QBs. But he joins a team with semi-established starter Josh Freeman ahead of him. Won’t start outside of injury, but is a solid backup, which is what he probably should have been all along. Unless he has rock-solid protection, I don’t see him having a lot of success in the pros.

Jets, 2nd round. W.V.: Adequate size. Average hand size.

Positives: Is both an excellent athlete and a very good passer. Has above-average mobility and very good speed. Throws very catchable pass and has excellent touch on intermediate passes. Fair accuracy on the run. Has enough velocity to fit passes into tight windows. Has the ability to vary his velocity and, though he has ability to rocket the ball, tends to throw with touch. Though he has only average height, he stands tall in the pocket. Has experience taking snaps from under center. Knows when to throw ball away. Is experienced at running a super-fast-tempo offense and making quick decisions.

Negatives: Ran a pistol offense, so may not be ready for a pro style offense right away. Below-average overall accuracy and often overthrows receivers. Slightly long windup. Eyeballs receivers. Below-average decisions outside pocket — throws across body or into coverage on occasion. A little hesitant and tends to hold the ball too long. Work ethic has been questionable throughout a lot of his college career, but most say he’s fixed that.

Projection: His decision making and the fact that his college offense didn’t prepare him for the pros will limit his immediate effectiveness. He also might be behind Mark Sanchez at the beginning, though it’s likely the team will make it as easy as possible for Smith to be the starter. He’ll probably be difficult to defend right away, but may have trouble when defenses adjust to him. Athletically, he’s between Ryan Tannehill and RG3. As a QB, though, I’m not completely sold. I don’t think he’ll ever be a top-10 QB, but may come out of the gates strong. In fantasy, be ready to trade in on early returns and get a windfall.

Eagles, 4th round. S. Cal.: Above-average size. Great hand size. Short arms.

Positives: Comes from a pro style system, so is probably the most pro-ready of all the QBs this year. Reads coverages well. Shows excellent touch and very good accuracy. Has a quick release, adequate arm strength, and above-average velocity on his passes. Throws an accurate deep ball even without a cannon for an arm. Excellent anticipation on timing routes. Fairly accurate on rollouts. Good footwork and overall mechanics. Good play fakes. Slides well to protect himself when on the run. Average speed.

Negatives: A little indecisive on throws, and double-clutches often. Will probably never be a comfortable runner. Tends to eyeball receivers. Injured shoulder in November 2012 and missed rest of season and Senior Bowl.

Projection: If he’d come out in the 2012 draft, I would have considered him the third-best QB prospect behind Andrew Luck and RG3 based on how I thought he’d progress in the pros. But he regressed in 2013, and it’s not certain whether it’s because of his own deficiencies or if he was trying too hard. He’s pro ready, though, and could step in on a team and start right away. It’s questionable how he fits into the usual Chip Kelly offense, but should be a solid pro once he gets the chance. It’s just uncertain when that will be. Draft as a long-term hold or Foles/Vick handcuff.

If your team needs a QB of the future right now, man did you pick a bad year! Since I’ve been writing about the NFL Draft, this ties the 2009 Draft (when Stafford and Sanchez came out) as the worst draft for QBs.

And this is also a bad year to try to figure out what teams are going to do about their QBs. Rankings of this class are all over the place and only one guy is generally showing up on all top-five lists: Geno Smith. But even he’s not a sure thing. And he’s not even the top QB on my list, either.

This year, the top QBs in my rankings are Matt Barkley and Geno Smith. Of the two, I see Barkley having the better NFL career (think a slightly better version of Mark Sanchez). Geno Smith, though he has a very high bust quotient, also has some good NFL qualities about him — especially his athleticism, mobility, and touch.

Though the 2013 Draft is very poor at the top, the quality of the class is helped slightly by the fact that there are a few more second-level guys than there were in 2009. Guys like Tyler Bray, EJ Manuel, Mike Glennon and Ryan Nassib. Each of these could make a solid backup and potential starter in the league, with Bray and Manuel the best of this second tier.

Behind them, you have maybe seven or eight QBs who will likely bounce around at the bottom of depth charts and practice squads for a while but who will likely never start a game.

Here are my rankings. Note that detailed scouting reports will be uploaded soon. Hopefully. If real life doesn’t interfere.

Rankings as of 4/12/2013

1. Matt Barkley, Southern California
2. Geno Smith, West Virginia
3. Tyler Bray, Tennessee
4. EJ Manuel, Florida State
5. Mike Glennon, North Carolina State
6. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
7. Landry Jones, Oklahoma
8. Matt Scott, Arizona
9. Zac Dysert, Miami (Ohio)
10. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
11. Alex Carder, Western Michigan
12. Brad Sorensen, Southern Utah
13. Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt
14. Ryan Griffin, Tulane
15. Collin Klein, Kansas State
16. Jeff Tuel, Washington State
17. Colby Cameron, Louisiana Tech
18. Ryan Aplin, Arkansas State
19. Seth Doege, Texas Tech
20. James Vandenberg, Iowa
21. Robert Marve, Purdue
22. Nathan Stanley, Southeast Louisiana
23. Dayne Crist, Kansas