Dynasty Draftnik

Bears, Round 6. Transferred from Nevada to community college to Wyoming to San Jose State. I see him as the third QB on the roster, ahead of Jordan Palmer but behind Jimmy Clausen. His short and medium accuracy are good enough for the NFL, but he just doesn’t have enough arm talent to make it as a starter. The Bears are a good situation for him, though, with big receivers who can outmuscle CBs for floating passes. Trestman knows QBs, and, if anybody can work with Fales, it’s him.

All-Star Games: Senior Bowl.

Positives: Adequate bulk and hand size. His passes have adequate velocity under optimal conditions. Throws a very catchable short and medium pass, with above-average accuracy. Above-average accuracy on timing routes, and shows good anticipation to hit receivers coming out of their breaks. Spreads the ball around as a quarterback. On the run, he keeps his eyes downfield looking to pass, but also knows when to throw the ball away. Moves fairly well inside the pocket and can step up to elude outside pressure. Adequate speed and is willing to run. Okay play fakes.

Negatives: Slightly below-average height for the position. Below-average speed and poor quickness. Slightly below-average height. Arm strength is a liability. Below-average arm strength and deep accuracy. He doesn’t have enough velocity on his passes to cut through high winds, and his passes tend to wobble when he has to put any velocity behind them. Tends to lock onto receivers, and doesn’t read the safety’s position well. In the red zone, his field vision seems to narrow, and he doesn’t see easier opportunities in the middle of the field. He often throws off of his back foot and loses even more velocity when he does. Below-average ball security in the pocket and holds the ball low and away.

Projection: He’ll probably be a solid backup for the Bears or another team, but I don’t think he’ll ever be fantasy-worthy.

UDFA. Was signed by the Jaguars as a UDFA but released in August. He doesn’t seem physically talented enough as a passer to be successful in the NFL – except as a backup. Would be better in a system that takes advantage of his mobility, but his passing skills will still probably hold him back.

All-Star Games: Senior Bowl.

Positives: Great hand size. Ran a pro-style offense in college, so he should be more ready to run an NFL offense. Throws with adequate arm strength, and he throws deep passes with nice touch. Above-average speed, and he is willing to run. Very good track speed for the position. Has quick feet, and he moves around well in the pocket, showing good escapability.

Negatives: Slightly below-average height and bulk, with a narrow build like a wide receiver. Surprisingly below-average quickness, explosiveness, and lateral quickness at combine drills. Though his arm strength is adequate, his velocity is below average. Throws with below-average accuracy at all levels – short, medium, and deep. Below-average anticipation, and he will throw it late on timing routes. Often locks onto his receivers, and doesn’t go through his progressions. Doesn’t read coverages well, especially on deep patterns, and he consistently throws passes right to defenders. On the move, he doesn’t set his feet well, and is accuracy suffers. Under outside pressure, he doesn’t step up in the pocket consistently. He also doesn’t protect the ball well under pressure. His throwing motion is a long windup with a long hesitation at the back of his throwing motion. This, combined with his habit of eyeballing receivers, gives defenders a big jump on the ball.

Projection: There’s no need to draft Morris.

Raiders, Round 2. Before the draft, I projected him to go late in Round 1, but put a 3^rd-round grade on him. Split the difference and we get the Raiders in Round 2. He definitely has NFL arm strength, and can make all of the throws. He immediately steps into a roster where he’s obviously the best QB — even over Matt Schaub — and will probably get a starting chance fairly immediately and throwing to some pretty good young talent.

All-Star Games: Senior Bowl.

Positives: Adequate height, bulk, and hand size. Good speed for the position and size. Adequate quickness. Has a quick release, and he throws with good arm strength and above-average velocity. Throws with nice touch and accuracy on short and medium routes. Above-average accuracy and anticipation on timing routes, and hits his receivers in stride. Goes through his progressions at time, and doesn’t lock onto single receivers. Willing to throw the ball away. Seems dedicated, and he put in a lot of after-practice work at the Senior Bowl. Moves well inside the pocket, and he keeps his eyes downfield on the run looking to pass.

Negatives: Comes out of a spread system, and may not be immediately ready for an NFL offense. Poor accuracy on fade routes. On the run, he has below-average accuracy and also makes poor red zone decisions when on the move. Though he has the arm strength to get it deep, his deep accuracy is merely below-average, and he will throw it into coverage on deep patterns. Looks easily rattled by pressure and doesn’t bounce back immediately from mistakes. Suspect pocket sense and he needs to learn to step up in pocket to avoid outside pressure. Locks eyes downfield and doesn’t sense outside rush at all at times. Doesn’t show much escapability, and doesn’t extend plays with his feet. Three-quarter release that drops down to sidearm at times. Though he has good track speed, he has only adequate field speed.

Projection: He has enough skills to be an adequate NFL starting QB, and is worth drafting in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts for teams that have the space for him to sit a year or two. Expect QB3 numbers for a year or so before he settles into the QB2 range.

Jets, Round 6. Was released by the Jets in August. He went a little later in the draft than I expected, which was Round 4, but he couldn’t stick even on a roster that is obviously looking for the quarterbacks who can run, since they already have Michael Vick and Geno Smith on board. As a runner, he can be very effective. As a passer, he needs a lot of work on decision-making and mechanics. He will definitely make the team, but shouldn’t be considered starter material for at least a couple of years.

All-Star Games: Senior Bowl.

Positives: Good bulk for the position. Above-average hand size. Above-average arm strength and velocity – can fit passes through tight windows. On short passes, he throws a catchable pass with nice touch and accuracy. Though his medium and deep accuracy still aren’t great, they have improved in the past two years. Doesn’t throw a great spiral, and passes will flutter in the wind. Not physically afraid of pressure, and stands in tall in the pocket. He goes through his progressions at times, and doesn’t always lock onto single receivers. Moves well inside the pocket. Is a very willing and elusive runner with above-average burst and quickness. Adequate speed for the position. Is a patient runner who follows his blockers through the line. Runs tough, and finishes runs hard but also knows when to slide as a runner.

Negatives: Below-average height for the position. Below-average explosiveness and quickness in combine drills. Comes out of a spread offense, so he may have a longer learning curve ahead of him in the NFL. Inconsistent accuracy on passes over 10 yards. Poor mechanics on the move, and his accuracy suffers. His throwing motion is erratic and not overhand – it starts at three-quarter angle and drops down to sidearm at times. His upper and lower body also don’t seem to be in sync, and he seems to use only his arm to throw – not his lower body. Though he can throw it with velocity, he needs to learn to vary his velocity better – driving the ball more on deeper patterns and using more touch on medium patterns. He needs to place deep passes better and give his receivers more of a chance to make uncontested receptions. Most of his negatives come from decision-making. He is indecisive, especially in pressure situations and the red zone, and he will hold the ball too long. He will wait until the last second, and then tend to force the ball. Under pressure, he consistently misses wide-open reads or forces the ball. He needs to learn to just throw ball away or be quicker about making decisions. Sometimes seems to lack field sense, and he took a safety in 2013 when there was an obviously open receiver. Misses open reads over the middle. Doesn’t seem to feel pocket collapsing. Below-average ball security on the run, and he holds the ball too loosely when running. Suspect balance making cuts.

Projection: Might still be worth stashing in deep dynasty leagues, but don’t expect anything for a while.

Cardinals, Round 4. I fully expected the hype machine to push him into Round 1 at some point of the draft process, but he still went too high, in my opinion. I mean, he absolutely looks the part – size and strength and speed – but it’s the mental aspect of being a quarterback that is lacking, whether that comes from his college coaching or whatever. If I were drafting, I wouldn’t take him before the 6th round as a long-term developmental prospect behind Carson Palmer. Essentially, he reminds me of Marqueis Gray, the quarterback out of Minnesota from the 2013 draft who was moved to tight end immediately and became a contributor. But his physical assets were elite enough to make the Cardinals think that, if they could fix his mental errors, they would have a franchise quarterback. Will be given a chance to learn the craft for a couple of years behind Palmer and then get a chance to fail at quarterback in the NFL before potentially being moved to another position such as tight end – the position he played in high school.

All-Star Games: Senior Bowl.

Positives: Great size for a quarterback. Huge hands. Good size for a tight end, with a long wingspan. Ran a pro-style system in college, so he may be more ready to play in the NFL. Good arm strength and above-average velocity, and throws a nice spiral. Good throwing mechanics on most throws. Goes through progressions and doesn’t always lock onto single receivers. Is willing to throw the ball away when he thinks he can’t make a throw. Is a good runner, with above-average speed and quickness, and good for his size. Knows when to slide on the run, but is also willing to lower his shoulders to push for extra yards. Finishes runs tough consistently.

Negatives: Though his throwing mechanics are usually good, he tends to drop his left shoulder on the follow-through and short-hop passes. Consistently poor accuracy even on screens and passes to the flat. Inconsistent medium accuracy. Doesn’t throw well when required to use touch. Often throws into coverage. Inconsistent decision-making ability. Consistently poor decisions on clutch plays. He doesn’t seem to see or sense rush up the middle, and even though he’s a good runner, he doesn’t move well when pressured up the middle. Often lays out his wide receivers over the middle. Lazy on handoffs and screens.

Projection: Don’t draft expecting any kind of return in the short term. He’s a definite long-term hold, though, if you have the patience and the roster space.