2011 Offensive Supplemental Draft Fantasy Prospects

Posted on August 18, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

The NFL’s Supplemental Draft is usually held around the middle of July — before training camps open but after most of the teams’ offseason workouts. And it almost never gets any attention — either by the teams, the NFL, or the fans. The 2010 draft was mainly reported on by 140-character Twitter tweets. And that’s pretty much the way it should be. There haven’t been many offensive stars selected through the Supplemental Draft. Bernie Kosar, Cris Carter, and Rob Moore… that’s about it. The players who enter the Supplemental Draft are generally those who didn’t declare for the regular April draft and whose collegiate situations suddenly and drastically changed.

This year, though, the Supplemental Draft is getting a little bit more attention because of one player — QB Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State. Pryor was at the center of your typical NCAA student-athlete money scandal and was thought to be ready to come back to finish his senior season at the school until it was determined — after a lot of politicking — that he would be ineligible. So he, along with a few defensive prospects and Georgia RB Caleb King, have declared for this year’s Supplemental Draft, which will be held on Monday, August 22.

As a dynasty fantasy football player, should you care? Meh… maybe a little. Both Pryor and Caleb King have some skills, but neither is going to contribute at a level where you really have to think about picking them up yet. Especially since, if they are even drafted, they won’t have the benefit of offseason workouts or even the smallest bit of training camp experience. Neither will have a chance to impress their coaching staffs. As a result, the 2011 prospects of either guy are very limited. In addition, Pryor brings a 5-game suspension with him into the NFL — he won’t be able to practice or play for the first five weeks of the season.

Regardless, as I said, both Pryor and King have skills. But regardless of what his agent Drew Rosenhaus says, Pryor is not a 1st-round talent. Pryor has great size, is a good runner and has shifty feet, but doesn’t have great change-of-direction skills or power (surprising with his size). He also tends to be careless with the ball when he’s running. As a passer, he has experience running a pro-style offense at Ohio State, but his QB skills are sub-par. He tends to stare down his receivers. He’s not very accurate at any level of the field. He throws off his back foot too often in addition to having other mechanical flaws. He does move around well in the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield looking to pass instead of run first, but he tends to make poor decisions on the run. Overall, if he were in the regular April draft, I’d give him a 7th-round grade. In the Supplemental Draft, I don’t expect him to be drafted at all before the 5th round, and is more likely to go in the 6th or 7th round. At that point, I think some team will take him and make him at least a two-year project — he needs a lot of work, but has athleticism that could pay off in time under a good QB coach.

Caleb King is another junior who is a former 5-star high school recruit. He’s in the draft because he was ruled academically ineligible at Georgia for the 2011 season. He has good vision and pass-protection skills, and looks very comfortable on outside runs — slightly less so running inside. But he looks like he’d be fairly effective running in a zone-blocking system where he’s expected to just make one cut and go. He has average speed and size, and has above-average power and agility. He has good enough pass-protection ability and hands to be an effective 3rd-down back. However, I don’t actually expect him to be selected in the Supplemental Draft — there are just so many RBs out there right now who have been in camp, know the playbook or are experienced enough to help out a team right away. That being said, RB is the one position where a player can come in right away and contribute. If he’s selected — probably not before Round 7, he could make a roster with a solid preseason performance. The Detroit Lions have shown some interest, and I’ve seen reports of from 4-10 teams attending his recent pro day workout. If you want to see an excellent video of him, go here.

There are plenty of better prospects out there than Terrelle Pryor. So unless you’re in a super-deep and large dynasty league, you probably don’t even have to consider picking him up. As for King, watch where he signs and keep him on your watch list. He likely won’t contribute in 2011, but could work his way into a few touches here and there. And in 2012, maybe more. But he’s also only roster-worthy in super-deep dynasty leagues.

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2011 NFL Rookie Draft Results

Posted on August 14, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

The dynasty fantasy football league I’m in is in its 4th year now. It’s a 12-team non-PPR league with 29-man rosters with starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, a TE, Kicker, and Team Defense.

The mix of players in my league is a little erratic — most take it seriously, some take it very seriously, but a few seem to be nearly comatose. One team is an absolute joke where the guy still has Deshaun Foster and Drew Bennett on his roster, neither of whom have been close to the NFL for at least two years. And yes, I’ve tried to help that guy — even offering him a 4th-round pick for the dead weight on his roster, but he’d declined.

What can I say? Some people just don’t mind losing.

Here is a list of the players who were drafted in our latest draft. This might help you if your league’s format and idiot ratio are similar to mine.

Good luck!

Round 1

  1. Team 1: Mark Ingram
  2. Team 2: Daniel Thomas
  3. Team 3: AJ Green
  4. Team 4: Roy Helu
  5. Team 5: Julio Jones
  6. Team 1: Ryan Williams
  7. Team 6: Kendall Hunter
  8. Team 7: Alex Green
  9. Team 8: Cam Newton
  10. Team 9: Randall Cobb
  11. Team 10: Jonathan Baldwin
  12. Team 11: Torrey Smith

My Pick: Throughout this draft, I’m Team 3. The names of the other teams have been changed to hide their undying shame. So my first-round pick — the number-three overall — is AJ Green. Honestly, it was a tossup between Green and Julio Jones. And if Team 4 had been willing to trade, I would have been fine trading back to get Jones instead. They’re both going to be excellent WRs for a long time. And while Jones has the better QB throwing to him, he also has Roddy White across from him stealing his thunder. And while Green is definitely THE MAN in Cincinnati, he has either Andy Dalton or Bruce Gradkowski throwing to him. Both excellent talents whose situations may limit their ceiling for the next few seasons. 

Best Pick: Not that I’m biased, but AJ Green is an awesome pick. I had traded Anquan Boldin (my WR2 who has underperformed for a couple of years now) to get the 3rd pick in the hopes that AJ or Jones fell to me and immediately replace and eventually exceed Boldin’s production. So it worked out great for me.

Biggest Surprise: I could go with either Daniel Thomas or Roy Helu — guys who will probably never prove worthy of their draft position — but I’m going with Alex Green. Now, I like Green a lot, but even I have him as my 12th-rated RB. He has the skills to be a low-end RB1 some day, but that day is in at least two years away with Grant and Starks ahead of him in Green Bay.

Round 2

  1. Team 12: Leonard Hankerson
  2. Team 2: Christian Ponder
  3. Team 10: Blaine Gabbert
  4. Team 4: Jordan Todman
  5. Team 5: Jacquizz Rogers
  6. Team 1: Demarco Murray
  7. Team 3: Greg Little
  8. Team 7: Denarius Moore
  9. Team 8: Edmund Gates
  10. Team 9: Delone Carter
  11. Team 10: Lance Kendricks
  12. Team 11: Shane Vereen

My Pick: Greg Little. My only regret about Round 1 was that I wasn’t going to be able to get Greg Little, who I had as the 3rd-best WR in the draft and 5th-best player overall. I think he just has amazing skills and has landed in the perfect position for him in Cleveland. So I couldn’t believe it when he was still around for me in Round 2 at the 19th-overall pick. He has way more potential than Hankerson, who I don’t really like (and who I compare to Little’s now-teammate Brian Robiskie). Which leads me to…

Best Pick: Greg Little. For all the reasons I just gave. Honorable mention goes to Team 7, who picked Denarius Moore. Someone’s obviously been paying attention to the great reports about Moore in Oakland.

Biggest Surprise: Overall, outside of Greg Little dropping so far, it was a pretty solid Round 2. But I was a little surprised Delone Carter dropped Jacquizz and Demarco.

Round 3

  1. Team 12: Jerrell Jernigan
  2. Team 2: Johnny White
  3. Team 4: Andy Dalton
  4. Team 10: Kyle Rudolph
  5. Team 1: Julius Thomas
  6. Team 3: Jake Locker
  7. Team 6: Colin Kaepernick
  8. Team 7: Jordan Cameron
  9. Team 8: Alex Henery
  10. Team 9: Dwayne Harris
  11. Team 3: Anthony Allen
  12. Team 11: Stevan Ridley

My Pick: Two of them — Jake Locker and Anthony Allen. Jake was just the best available player for me — who I rated as the 3rd-best QB just a hair ahead of Kaepernick — and fills a need for a young backup QB4 who isn’t John Skelton. Allen, honestly, wasn’t my pick. I have a partner who made the pick. I love Allen’s abilities (he was on my list as a 3rd-round talent) and it may work out, but he’s stuck behind Ray Rice, Ricky Williams and maybe even Jalen Parmele. I probably would have taken Vincent Brown, who was my best available at the time.

Best Pick: A lot of these picks are on my sleepers list, but I’m going to say Julius Thomas. He’s my top-rated TE in this draft and has quickly exceed expectations in Denver.

Biggest Surprise: I don’t particularly like the Johnny White pick, who is doomed in Buffalo and is way down on my list (#90 overall to be exact). But I’ve never seen someone draft a kicker in a rookies draft. Alex Henery is my biggest surprise. He could turn out to be a great kicker for the Eagles, but kickers always have such up-and-down years that it’s crazy to make one part of your dynasty strategy. Weird!

Round 4

  1. Team 12: Taiwan Jones
  2. Team 2: Demarco Sampson
  3. Team 4: Austin Pettis
  4. Team 10: Titus Young
  5. Team 1: Vincent Brown
  6. Team 5: Ryan Mallett
  7. Team 6: Mikell Leshoure
  8. Team 7: Jamie Harper
  9. Team 8: No Pick
  10. Team 9: No Pick
  11. Team 3: Darvin Adams
  12. Team 11: Ricky Stanzi

My Pick: Darvin Adams, WR for the Panthers. OK, once again this is my partner’s pick since I was incommunicado during this part of the draft. He was my 61st-ranked guy in the draft. Maybe my partner deserves some credit for being seriously deep about this pick. Maybe he realizes that Adams was Cam Newton’s top target in college and that kind of chemistry may carry over to the pros. Maybe he realized that, with David Gettis potentially being out for the season and no other WR definitely above him on the depth chart, that Adams could just become the top target Carolina needs across from Steve Smith.

Or maybe he owes me an apology…

I would have taken Bilal Powell. Which would have made a lot of sense because we have Shonn Greene. I’m not particularly enamoured of Powell myself — unlike a lot of people — but he’s probably going to get a chance to contribute.

Best Pick: Vincent Brown. His hype train has cooled off lately with Malcom Floyd resigning, but he could still contribute a lot as their 3rd receiver this year.

Biggest Surprise: Probably Darvin Adams. Or that Taiwan Jones lasted as long as he did.

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2011: Top 10 Dynasty Rookie QBs

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

1. Cameron Newton, QB, Panthers, 1st round. Auburn: Great size and vision as runner. Effortless arm. Very good speed and quickness for the size. Patient in pocket and steps up well. Makes good decisions with ball. Mechanically sound and keeps shoulder squared even outside pocket. Nice velocity — can throw 50 yards on a rope. Shifty feet as runner and also runs with great power. Reputation for ball security — only fumbled twice in college career, though it was in SEC Championship game and BCS Championship. Also held ball in one hand very often while running. Throws off back foot too often. Only one year at major college level. Almost no experience under center or calling plays, and his appearance on Gruden’s QB Camp shows that he has long learning curve for pro offense. Was a Junior. Will likely start immediately, and should contribute right away, but will probably not dominate as a passer for a couple of years.

2. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jaguars, 1st round. Mo.: Great size. Great zip on throws. Very good arm. Very accurate. Very good speed and quickness for his Roethlisberger-esque size. Good mechanics. Spread QB who looks like he’s athletic and smart enough that he’ll be able to learn pro footwork — has also worked with a QB coach in pro-style offense since high school. Also has near-photographic memory. Experienced runner. Throws well on run, though he threw INT across body in bowl game. Doesn’t react well to pressure or feel rush up middle. A little sloppy with ball on runs and happened again in training camp. Only completed 38% of passes over 15 yards in college — a trend that has continued in camp. Seems too passive to be able to command a huddle. Was a Junior. Should start for Jaguars by the end of 2010, but could use a year of learning behind Garrard. Productivity limited by emphasis on the run.

3. Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers, 2nd round. Nev.: Great size. Very good speed and quickness for the size. Excellent velocity on passes. Strange, but effective, running style with very good speed. Had 20 pass TDs and 20 rush TDs in 2010. Good foot control on sideline. Good vision as runner. Nice touch on intermediate throws over LBs. Accurate throwing on the run. Had good completion percentage, but looked slightly inaccurate in bowl game. Ran pistol offense in college and will need time to develop as under-center QB, but has excellent coach. Late recognition on several routes. Long windup with a baseball-type throw and was drafted by Cubs. Poor ball security technique and needs to learn to protect ball when on the run. Will likely start by 2012 with only Alex Smith likely to be ahead of him on depth chart, and could be solid QB2 by 2013.

4. Jake Locker, QB, Titans, 1st round. Wash.: Good size. Excellent speed and quickness for the size. Very strong runner with RB running style. Good anticipation. Nice velocity, touch and arm strength. Throws very catchable pass. Good play fakes. Keeps shoulders squared to pass on rollouts. Keeps eyes downfield when outside pocket. Solid mechanics on run but needs help on footwork within the pocket. Knows when to throw ball away but needs to protect body better running downfield. Looks tight throwing the ball. Tends to stare down receivers. Some experience in pro style offense but had trouble taking snaps during Senior Bowl practices. Below-average accuracy. Inconsistent decision making — often missing better options on plays. Suspect ball security on run. Needs a year of seasoning behind Hasselbeck. Will probably start by 2012, but likely only to ever be a fantasy QB2 at most.

5. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals, 2nd round. TCU: Average size and speed. Excellent quickness and shows escapability. Accurate on the run and protects ball. Good deep touch. Average arm strength. Fairly accurate short. A little streaky — started off 2009 bowl game very inaccurate, but got better as game went on. Nice play fakes. Fair arm strength, velocity and anticipation. Doesn’t read defenses well and throws into double coverage too often. Not great vision. Below-average mechanics. 3/4 release motion results in a few batted passes. Should be team’s starter immediately and has great young targets in AJ Green, Simpson, Shipley and Caldwell. High-end fantasy QB3 potential.

6. Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings, 1st round. Fla. St.: Average size. Very good speed and excellent quickness. Shows escapability and is willing to run with it. Makes quick decisions under pressure. Good mechanics. Has experience with pro-style concepts, and looks destined for a West Coast-type offense. Very smart off field. Knows when to throw ball away. Has long injury history, missing 2009 bowl game, 2010 ACC Championship and several other games. Definite concerns about arm strength and velocity — short-hopped a 5-yard pass in bowl game and struggled to throw it past 30 yards in Senior Bowl game, though that may be because he was coming off of injury again. But he still looks short in preseason action. Should be team’s starter by 2012. Has great potential if he stays healthy, but that’s a definite question mark. Short-term potential limited by lack of targets. But, if he stays healthy, could become high-end fantasy QB2.

7. Ryan Mallett, QB, Patriots, 3rd round. Ark.: Great size and very tall. Spread QB with some under-center experience. Has great background in understanding complex offenses. Very effortless deep ball. Nice velocity and touch. Steps up in pocket and sidesteps rush. OK footwork. Inconsistent accuracy — a few overthrows mixed with a few underthrows. Even with size, gets passes batted. Sluggish moving around in pocket and was sacked several times during training camp. Below-average explosiveness on run. There are rumors that he has some off-field drug trouble. Reportedly had inconsistent Combine interviews. Could be Drew Bledsoe, could be Jimmy Clausen. Junior who has declared for the 2011 draft. Prospects severely limited by presence of Tom Brady on roster, but could star as an injury fill-in and eventual trade bait.

8. Greg McElroy, QB, Jets, 7th round. Ala.: Slightly below-average height, but good bulk. Looks like a perfect fit for a West Coast offense. Athletic. Accurate and poised with good mechanics, even on run. Moves around well in pocket. Academic All-American and scored 43 on Wonderlic. Nice touch. Good timing. Very competitive — threw great block on end-around to spring WR for TD. Finds uncovered receivers right away. Tough and a good runner, but only average speed and quickness. Comes from spread offense, but has experience under center. Reputation as a game manager. Holds ball too long, and will take some unnecessary hits. Hurt hand at Senior Bowl and wasn’t able to throw at Combine but was healed by April pro day. Likely to only be Jets’ QB2 for years, with Sanchez ahead of him, but has excellent potential if given a starting chance.

9. Tyrod Taylor, QB, Ravens, 6th round. Va. Tech: Slightly below-average size and has had a lot of passed batted in training camp. Excellent speed, quickness, and explosiveness for the position. Very strong arm — threw 75 yards in the air in 2009 bowl game. Great touch deep. Steps up in pocket well to find lane. Stays unfazed under pressure. Good mechanics, and sets up well on run. Fair accuracy. Looks off receivers and doesn’t stay locked on. Makes good decisions, even outside the pocket. Can throw it with touch or zip where needed. Seems even-keeled even when successful on field. Confident. Suspect ball security — carries ball in hand even through traffic. Compared often to Vick, though a more polished passer and less of a runner. Also taller than Vick. Will battle Cantwell for QB2 spot, but won’t start on team except as injury fill-in for Flacco. Has long-term potential once he gets comfortable in pro offense. May also get some work as Wildcat QB.

10. Ricky Stanzi , QB, Chiefs, 5th round. Iowa: Very good size, though looks a little thin. Stands tall in pocket. Great touch and good accuracy short and medium. Runs pro-style offense. Moves well in pocket and is accurate on the run. Knows when to step up in pocket and is able to avoid rush. Knows when to throw the ball away. Keeps eyes downfield while moving. Tough — had ankle surgery late in 2009, but still started 2009 bowl game. Below-average speed and quickness. Inconsistent decision-making. Arm strength is an issue. A little slow to recognize open receivers. Stares down receivers a little too much when pressing. Likely to be immediate backup to Cassel and likely to see snaps during season as injury fill-in. Team’s heavy run emphasis limits his upside even as a starter. If he starts, has eventual fantasy QB3 potential.

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2011: Top 20 Dynasty Rookie RBs

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

1. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints, 1st round. Ala.: Slightly below-average height, but good bulk. Great burst and peripheral vision. Nice cutback runner. Runs very tough. Will bowl over DBs. Patient. Average speed. Has solid open-field moves. Below-average quickness. Inconsistent hands as receiver. Received degree a year early. Junior who has declared for the 2011 draft. Enters crowded Saints backfield, but is honestly the best of them already. Will have competition for touches, and this may limit his productivity in first year, but should be team’s number-1 RB by end of 2011.

2. Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals, 2nd round. E. Car.: Slightly below-average size. Very good burst. Super-quick change of direction and above-average lateral movement. Average track speed, though seems fairly fast in games. Average upper-body strength. Keeps legs churning in short yardage — running angry in training camp. Keeps balance very well after contact. Willing blocker. R. Soph. who has declared for the 2011 draft. Reminds me of Clinton Portis coming out. With Beanie Wells as his only real competition, should at least share carries right away. Has solid RB1 potential.

3. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins, 2nd round. Kan. St.: Very good size. Good speed, cutback vision, burst, and upper-body strength. Changes direction smoothly, without wasted lateral movement — always moving forward. One-cut-and-go runner. Patient and waits for blocks. Fair receiver and good after the catch. Was QB at community college before transferring to Kansas St., so may be a good Wildcat QB. After slowing down and having a knee injury late in season, was also a late scratch from Senior Bowl due to hamstring injury that lasted at least through March. Was injured off and on through college. Landed in perfect situation, on a Dolphins team that loves to run the ball and has no definite RB stars on roster. Watch his competition with Kory Sheets and potentially either R. Brown or Ricky Williams. Could have most immediate impact of any rookie, and falls here only because his injury history and running style limit his long-term potential.

4. Delone Carter, RB, Colts, 4th round. Syracuse: Below-average height, but great bulk. Strong hands and upper body. Finishes runs with power. Very hard to tackle and often bowls over guys. Good pass blocker. Gets low and keeps legs churning in short yardage. Good wiggle even on wet turf. Good burst helps him get through even the smallest creases. Average speed. Reminds me of Maurice Jones-Drew. Tough as gunner on special teams. Enters backfield with only Donald Brown as real competitor for touches. Should have RB3 impact right away, and has the skills to become team’s number-1 RB by 2011.

5. Roy Helu, Jr. , RB, Redskins, 4th round. Neb.: Good size, speed, burst and quickness. Bounces around well when behind the line to find creases. Tends to fall forward for extra yards. Hands catcher. Willing run blocker (though not great) and good pass blocker but needs to get more solid base to keep from getting bowled over. Having trouble picking up blitz in camp. Below-average vision. Very weak upper body. Suspect ball security — in Big 12 Championship, fumbled once and nearly fumbled again. Played in Senior Bowl. Enters crowded but not necessarily talented backfield and will compete with Torain, Hightower, Williams and fellow rookie Royster for touches. Should win the battle and be team’s starting RB right away. Nice future in this offense and his skills match nicely with team’s philosophy.

6. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots, 2nd round. Cal.: Average size. Very strong upper body and good stiff-arm. Above-average burst, concentration and hands. Experienced receiver. Average speed and quickness. Smooth runner, but doesn’t make precise cuts. Decisive as KR. Suspect ball security. Comes to decimated Patriots backfield, and should get a lot of work right away. May be 2012 starter if BJGE leaves via FA. Regardless, should be team’s RB2. Could be team’s new Kevin Faulk if BJGE returns. Long-term fantasy RB3 potential.

7. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers, 4th round. Okla. St.: Short, but has adequate bulk for the size. Similar body type to Ray Rice. Very effective and tenacious at blitz pickup. Above-average speed. Can break tackles. Nice balance after contact. Quick, precise change of direction. Above-average upper-body strength. OK hands, but body catches too many. Also needs to work on routes. Willing run blocker. Played in Senior Bowl. May be Gore’s immediate backup ahead of Dixon because of his pass-protection ability and Dixon’s apparent move to FB. RB2 potential as Gore injury fill-in and eventual replacement.

8. Anthony Allen, RB, Ravens, 7th round. Ga. Tech: Very good size, quickness, explosiveness, and upper-body strength. Workhorse-type RB. Good speed for the size. Lowers shoulders very well when fighting for extra yards. Pops defenders back on impact and doesn’t get knocked back himself, always falling forward. Gives good effort at errant passes. Also plays special teams as a blocker. Suspect ball security. Worked out of B-Back position in school, so running from HB depth will be a learning curve similar to what Jonathan Dwyer had to go through with Steelers in 2010. Played in Senior Bowl. Enters talented backfield, and will never beat out Ray Rice, but should be team’s RB2 right away. If given the chance, should be a quality fantasy RB2.

9. Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders, 4th round. E. Wash.: Very good height, but should add some bulk. Very good speed, burst and stop-and-start. Good balance. Nice vision and cutback. Not much of a blocker. Very weak upper body. Has durability concerns and a history of fumbling. Broke foot in playoffs in 230-yard effort. Didn’t run at Combine. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Similar to Darren McFadden in style and build. Should immediately be RB2 and has RB1 potential if he starts due to injury.

10. Mikel LeShoure, RB, Lions, 2nd round. Ill.: Above-average size, with very good quickness and good speed and for the size. Strong lower body — runs slightly upright, but still has the strength to break tackles. Good vision on cutbacks. Good spin move. Smooth runner. Lowers shoulders to deliver hits. Always falls forward. Willing pass blocker. Keeps shoulders squared. Average upper-body strength. Fair receiver. Needs to go more N-S than E-W in short yardage. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Has been compared several times to Steven Jackson. Will eventually pair with Jahvid Best for great 1-2 punch, but may even be more productive than Best if used as a grinder on 1st and 2nd down. Ruptured Achilles tendon in training camp and is out for 2011.

11. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons, 5th round. Ore. St.: Very short (5’5-3/4”), but solid bulk. Very good balance and vision. Finishes with surprising pop. Breaks a lot of arm tackles. Moves very well laterally. Only 1 fumble in college career. Good body control as receiver. Only average speed and quickness, which is surprising for a back his size. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Has Warrick Dunn-like skill set and enters Dunn’s former backfield. Has nice long-term potential in system once Turner is gone. Should be their 3rd-down back in 2011. Could be eventual fantasy RB2.

12. Alex Green*, RB, Packers, 3rd round. Hi.: Very good size and track speed. Above-average game speed. Makes quick decisions. Good power. Gets low in short yardage. Very compact stride allows him to change direction fairly quickly. Average upper-body strength. Fair receiver who adjusts well. Fights for extra yards and doesn’t seem to like to step out of bounds. Keeps legs churning and keeps balance fairly well after contact. Suspect ball security. Enters crowded backfield, with Grant and Starks likely ahead of him, but should be at least their RB2 by end of 2011. Has low-end RB1 potential once he’s starting.

13. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots, 3rd round. La. St.: Very good size. Below-average straight-line speed, but average quickness. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Red flag for intelligence, since was ruled academically ineligible. Determined runner. Slightly off-balance. Strong, with powerful hands. Above-average vision for cutback. Fair pass blocker. At NFL Combine. Similar to BJGE and is good insurance in case team doesn’t re-sign him. If BJGE doesn’t re-sign, then he really could be team’s RB1, which makes him a fantasy RB3

14. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys, 3rd round. Okla.: Above-average size, but could stand to pack some muscle on his thin lower body. More of a WR build than a RB. Very good straight-line speed. Good burst. Makes quick decisions. Tends to run too upright, but still exceptionally hard to bring down. Average hands and upper-body strength. Has good body control, but not much change of direction, which showed in his slow performance in quickness drills at Combine. Can pass block, though tends to lower his head and lunge and miss. Looks like a fair 3rd-down back, though needs to work on hands and blocking. Should be team’s RB3, but not likely to beat out Felix Jones or Tashard Choice for touches in 2011. Reported to training camp with a pulled hamstring. Eventual fantasy RB3 potential.

15. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets, 4th round. Louisville: Average size. Very good cutback vision and burst and seems perfect for a zone-blocking type of run offense. Experienced receiver. Athletic with good body control and showed quick spin move in Senior Bowl game. Adequate speed. Balanced runner, though runs a little upright. Maybe too much dancing in backfield, though seemed much more decisive in Senior Bowl game. Offers YAC as receiver. Below-average upper-body strength. Small-ish hands. Not terribly creative when there are no obvious holes. Hurt hamstring at Combine and Pro Day. Will compete with Joe McKnight for RB3 spot and should stick on roster as RB4. Could be team’s RB2 by 2012 but has limited upside. Fantasy upside is RB5.

16. Da’Rel Scott, RB, Giants, 7th round. Md.: Above-average size. Very good straight-line speed. Patient, but has good burst when he makes decisions. Strong. Stays low through line. Demonstrates nice jump-cut and burst. OK tracking ball over inside shoulder. Gets good leverage in pass blocking but doesn’t stay squared to defender. Durability is an issue. Below-average change of direction. Played in Senior Bowl. With team potentially losing RBs to FA, could be team’s RB2 fairly soon, and has long-term fantasy high-end RB3 potential.

17. Darren Evans, RB, Colts, UDFA. Va. Tech: Great size. Decisive runner who hits with power. Fairly quick, balanced, and agile. Strong upper body. Average speed. Questionable hands. Junior who has declared for the 2011 draft. Titans have shown interest.

18. Chad Spann, RB, Colts, UDFA. N. Ill.: Very short, but very good bulk for the size. Ray Rice size. Excellent balance. Very quick change of direction. Nice burst and stop-and-start to pop through small creases. Good power and quick feet. Always seems to be moving forward. Adequate speed. Not much of a blocker. Questionable hands. Played in NFLPA Game. Chargers have shown interest.

19. Brandon Saine, RB, Packers, UDFA. Ohio St.: Above-average size. Good acceleration and above-average speed. Strong lower body. Runs over pads. Lowers shoulder to deliver hits. Protects ball through hole. Nimble feet which he uses to pick his way through traffic. Patient, and has nice burst once he makes his decision. Nice receiver with WR hands. Average change of direction and upper-body strength. Runs too upright in short yardage. Reminds me of Beanie Wells, though not as fast. Chargers have shown interest.

20. Isaac Odim, RB, Chargers, UDFA. Minn.-Duluth: Great size. Very intelligent. DNP in 2010 bowl game due to midseason injury. Still did enough in just a few games to earn conference player of the year award. 7.2 career YPC. Similar to Ben Tate or Toby Gerhart. Character red flag due to high school sexual assault charges. Above-average explosiveness. Average speed, but good short-area burst. Average upper-body strength. Packers have shown interest.

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2011: Top 20 Dynasty Rookie WRs

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

1. A.J. “Adriel” Green, WR, Bengals, 1st round. Ga.: Very good size. Excellent balance. Very crisp routes. Very tough to tackle. Very strong lower body, average upper body. Good, quick hands, speed, and quickness for the size. Good vision after catch. Nice tracking. Looked lost in Combine gauntlet drill, though. Definitely a day-1 starter for Bengals and is likely their WR1 right away. However, his production may be reduced first year with rookie QB starting. In training camp highlights, repeatedly beat their top CB badly. Long-term value through the roof. Was Junior.

2. Julio “Quintorris” Jones, WR, Falcons, 1st round. Ala.: Good size. Elite speed, quickness, and explosiveness. Very crisp routes. Great acceleration off of line. Good stiff-arm. Runs like a RB and is smooth after the catch. Good body control on sidelines. Tough — played great in bowl game with broken hand and was most outstanding WR in Combine with a broken foot. Had pin inserted in foot and practiced again by May. Below-average upper-body strength. Will immediately pair with Roddy White and should produce like a number-2 WR right away. Long-term prospects only limited by presence of White on other side. Was a Junior.

3. Greg Little, WR, Browns, 2nd round. N. Car.: Good size and H-back bulk. Very strong upper body and isn’t afraid to get physical. Great hands and body control. Good speed, explosiveness, and quickness for the size. Good vision, which he uses when running after catch. Fair concentration. Very volatile personality. Cross between Dez Bryant and Hakeem Nicks. Ineligible during 2010 for having a relationship with an agent. Has only 1 season of experience at WR after being a RB, so he’s still learning the position. Is entering a system that fits his skills very well. Should start almost immediately if lockout ends in time for training camp. Should be team’s number-1 WR when he starts. Will eventually produce like a WR1. Getting a lot of red-zone work in camp.

4. Tandon Doss, WR, Ravens, 4th round. Ind.: Good size. Nice routes and tracking. Adjusts fairly well to off-target passes. Is also reportedly tough, though not super-smooth after the catch. Fair concentration. Fair stop-and-start. Has a little trouble with fast passes. Below-average upper-body strength. Also a KR. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Not able to work out at pro day due to groin injury. Should back up Boldin on team and may contribute by 2012. Eventual fantasy WR2 potential on run-heavy team.

5. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers, 2nd round. Ky.: Below-average size. Smooth after the catch. Switches hands smartly. Strong hands — held ball in 1 hand even after being hit. Above-average speed and acceleration. Experienced at running short routes, with a lot of 3-yard out patterns. Very decisive as a PR. Also wildcat QB. Questionable hands, concentration and toughness — short-armed a pass over middle during bowl game and also dropped an easy pass, though reportedly showed excellent hands on pro day. Below-average change of direction and upper-body strength. Not much of a blocker. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Could immediately replace James Jones or Jordy Nelson as team’s WR3 and, in this explosive offense, could be quality fantasy WR2 by 2012 with Driver’s retirement.

6. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs, 1st round. Pitt.: Great size, which he uses to great advantage in red zone. Excellent verticals and explosiveness. Very good speed for the size. Good hands. Average upper-body strength. Fair body control. Runs a little out of control. Needs to be quicker out of breaks. Misjudged ball going up in bowl game and at Combine, too. Suspect concentration. Not a big part of 2010 bowl game. Has never been a super-productive receiver, though that may be because of Pitt’s conservative philosophy. Often compared physically to Larry Fitzgerald. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Reportedly had excellent pro day. Will likely be starter opposite Bowe right away, though he could use some time to learn the more complicated pro game. Teams’ running emphasis will limit his potential, but he may be a quality fantasy WR3 eventually.

7. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders, 5th round. Tenn.: Average size. Explosive. Very good speed, concentration and body control. Dangerous after the catch. Fairly quick. Inconsistent hands — looked effortless during Combine gauntlet drill, and can make the tough catch, but he loses concentration on easy ones. Very willing blocker who gives great effort. Weak upper body. Played in NFLPA Game. Suited to be Louis Murphy’s backup, and could be solid starter if given the chance. Has looked very good in training camp. Likely not better than fantasy WR3 anytime soon.

8. Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers, 3rd round. San Diego St.: Slightly below-average size. Excellent quickness out of breaks — gets hips very low on breaks and pops out of them. Nice routes and runs smoothly after the catch. Nice double moves. Fights for yards. Fair concentration. Had big 2010 bowl game. Late add to Senior Bowl. Very good hands in Senior Bowl practices, though slightly inconsistent. Below-average speed. Hamstring has limited him in camp. Weak upper body. Average speed. May fill in nicely as team’s slot WR replacing Crayton and could eventually be solid fantasy WR4.

9. Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Giants, 3rd round. Troy: Short, but adequate bulk. Very good hands, speed and quickness. Great vision and moves after catch. Very natural hands. Excellent returner who is balanced, smart, and tough to find and tackle. Shows good field awareness. Fairly tough — injured in bowl game but returned. Also was injured during Senior Bowl training and was replaced on roster. Very weak upper body. Looks like a great slot receiver. Likely to start immediately in slot, but his potential limited by offense.

10. Austin Pettis, WR, Rams, 3rd round. Boise St.: Very good size. Excellent quickness in short spaces. Tough — broke leg late in 2009 but was able to play in bowl. Very good hands — and can high-point the ball though he doesn’t get very high in jump ball situations. Athletic, with good body control. Adequate speed for the size. Below-average upper-body strength, but uses superior size to box out corners for jump balls. Fumbled going into end zone in 2010 bowl game. Played in Senior Bowl. May have landed in one of the best spots for him, with no clear-cut better WRs on Rams team. Will compete with Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander for WR2 spot, and should beat them by the end of the year. Will give Bradford a great red-zone target and possession receiver. Has eventual high-end WR2 potential.

11. Dwayne Harris, WR, Cowboys, 6th round. E. Car.: Below-average height (but good bulk) with RB build. Super-athletic with excellent vision and good moves and decisiveness as a returner — heads upfield without hesitation. Very good acceleration. Gets through the smallest creases. Quick out of breaks and runs crisp routes. Tenacious runner who fights hard for extra yards. Above-average quickness. Great hands in bowl game, though inconsistent in Senior Bowl practice. Average speed. Sometimes doesn’t pay attention to QB when running routes. Poor ball security after contact. Very weak upper body. Late add to Senior Bowl. I compare him to Percy Harvin. Likely to be plugged into the slot on team, but his long-term prospects severely limited by presence of Bryant and Austin. Has WR2 ability, but will likely only ever have a fantasy WR3 ceiling.

12. Titus Young, WR, Lions, 2nd round. Boise St.: Slightly below-average height, but poor bulk. Very good speed and offers YAC. Tracks ball very well. Very crisp routes. Also a KR, but tends to dance too much rather than head upfield. Willing to seek contact on returns. Ball gets through to body on catches at times. Seemed to lose concentration over middle in Senior Bowl game. Seems to run a little out of control in the open field. Little bit of Eddie Royal in him, though many are comparing him to DeSean Jackson. Enters offense with a lot of developing stars, and will most likely fall short of expectations due to competition for touches. Eventual WR2 potential.

13. Torrey “James” Smith, WR, Ravens, 2nd round. Md.: Average size and upper-body strength. Very good speed and verticals. Also looks fairly effective in the red zone. OK hands and can go up and snag passes. Loses concentration over the middle and short-arms it when he thinks contact is coming. Long legs that seem to go out of control and limit quickness out of breaks. Doesn’t complete his routes. Not much of a blocker. Also a KR. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Could be team’s deep threat, but not likely to have huge fantasy impact in run-based offense. Ceiling is fantasy WR4.

14. Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets, 5th round. TCU: Below-average size. Explosive returner with very good after-catch abilities. Very good acceleration, hands and body control. Makes solid decisions. Crisp routes and gets out of breaks cleanly and quickly. Keeps balance after hit. Below-average track speed, though he seems to play much faster and quicker. Below-average upper-body strength. Played in Senior Bowl. Comes to Jets WR corps that could be all new in 2011, with FA defections. Could become their slot WR depending on team’s other WR moves, but likely not much more than fantasy WR5 potential.

15. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins, 3rd round. Miami: Average size. Uses size well against smaller defenders. Adjusts well to underthrown passes. Also shows nice concentration in traffic. Works back to QB very well under pressure. Average speed, but very good track speed. Good lower-body strength. Fair hands, but has a hard time snagging passes away from his body or high-velocity passes — a tendency that also showed in Combine gauntlet. Also allows passes to get through to body too often. Seems to have trouble making quick cuts. Below-average upper-body strength. Played in Senior Bowl. I compare him to Brian Robiskie. Is part of an aging Washington WR corps and should get a chance to play by 2012. Prospects limited by run-based offense and questions at QB. Likely never more than a fantasy WR3.

16. Armand Robinson , WR, Steelers, UDFA. Miami (Ohio): Good size. Very good speed. Good hands. Quick out of breaks. Nice verticals. Willing to go to ground for ball and go over the middle. Tough and fights for extra yardage. Good stiff-arm. Tracks well over shoulder. Willing blocker. Uncoverable in MAC Championship. Also used a bit out of backfield. Played in Eastham Energy Game. Has been impressive in camp.

17. Aldrick Robinson, WR, Redskins, 6th round. SMU: Below-average size. Elite track speed. Very good quickness. Gets good separation deep. Fair acceleration. RB running style and smooth after the catch. Good red zone target — 8 straight games with a TD. Runs crisp routes. Adjusts well to underthrown ball. Catches very well with hands, though hands have been an issue in camp. Average upper-body strength. Suspect ball security. Questionable decisions as KR. Looks like a solid slot guy and enters Redskins WR corps that has no certain starters. Could be team’s version of Rod Smith, but not likely to be more than fantasy WR4 with team’s QB questions. Is also working on KR in camp.

18. Edmond Gates, WR, Dolphins, 4th round. Abilene Christian: Slightly below-average size. Elite speed and explosiveness. Nice tracking and reliable hands. Fairly crisp routes. Average upper-body strength. Bernard Scott’s cousin. Late add to Senior Bowl, but injured his hamstring on Day 2. Gives Dolphins a deep threat they didn’t have and should contribute right away in 4-WR sets (if the Dolphins run any of those in their offense). Eventual 3rd option behind Bess and Marshall. Prospects also limited by team’s heavy run-game reliance. Potential eventual fantasy WR4.

19. Terrence Toliver, WR, Texans, UDFA. LSU: Very good size. Excellent quickness for the size. Good speed for the size. Quick feet help him run good routes. Tracks ball well over shoulder. In Shrine Game practices, reportedly shielded defenders well and soaked up coaching. Also showed very good hands, adjustment, and concentration. Good blocker. Fairly tough — pulled hamstring at pro day but completed workout. Knows how to take a hit but is easily knocked off routes. Inconsistent concentration, dropping at least 2 passes in 2009 bowl.

20. DeMarco Sampson, WR, Cardinals, 7th round. San Diego St.: Good effort guy. Nice routes and hands. Below-average upper-body strength. Good size and speed. Average athleticism and quickness. Had injury trouble early in college. Depending on team’s FA WRs, Sampson could actually start for this team. And with Fitz on other side (and maybe Roberts in slot) could be fairly productive given adequate QB play. Not likely to be a fantasy star, but could contribute as fantasy WR5.

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2011: Top Dynasty Rookie TEs

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

1. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos, 4th round. Portland St.: Slightly below-average size. Fairly athletic former basketball player. Runs nice routes. Average speed, quickness and hands. Did short-arm a pass when hit was coming. Weak upper body. Will compete with fellow rookie Virgil Green for starting position, but may still be effective as more of an every-down TE. Solid TE3 right away with TE2 potential.

2. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings, 2nd round. Notre Dame: Good size. Has had a few injuries in college. At NFL Combine, DNP-injured. Junior who has declared for 2011 draft. Will replace Shiancoe on team by 2012 and should be solid TE2.

3. Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams, 2nd round. Wis.: Short for the position, with H-back bulk. Good speed. Above-average upper-body strength. Gets open consistently versus man coverage. Good hands, though not at Combine. Average quickness. Solid blocker when he latches on, but he needs to work on meeting defender. In bowl game, whiffed one block and was folded backward on another. Played in Senior Bowl. Likely to be team’s every-down TE and will definitely be on field during 2TE sets. Being moved around a lot. Has solid potential. TE3 right away with TE2 potential.

4. “David” DJ Williams, TE, Packers, 5th round. Ark.: Short for the position, with H-back bulk. Smart player with good hands and balance. Very good effort. Average speed and upper-body strength. Below-average quickness. OK run blocker, but easily pulled off his feet. Good pass blocker, though has had a bad camp in that area. In Senior Bowl. At NFL Combine. Goes to stacked TE group in Green Bay but should be at least their TE2 ahead of Quarless. Has long-term fantasy TE1 potential if Finley leaves or is injured again.

5. Virgil Green II, TE, Broncos, 7th round. Nev.: Slightly below-average size. Very explosive athlete with excellent verticals — may make him an excellent red-zone target. Good speed. A natural hands catcher. Beats man coverage regularly. Nice tracking. Average upper-body strength. Adequate blocking skills. Will compete with fellow rookie Julius Thomas for starting position, but may still be effective as TD threat. Solid TE3 right away with TE1 potential.

6. Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns, 4th round. S. Cal.: Average size. Athletic former BYU basketball player. Also played WR in college. Very good speed, hands, and vertical leap. Strong lower body. Precise routes. Average upper-body strength. Fairly quick, but a little slow off of line. Trouble judging passes and sometimes jumps unnecessarily. Reminds some of Jimmy Graham with less size. Will compete to be team’s TE3, but has Watson and Moore ahead of him now. Could turn out to be team’s TE1 but not likely to be more than fantasy TE2.

7. Luke Stocker, TE, Buccaneers, 4th round. Tenn.: Average size. Nice hands. Strong upper body. Good run blocker. Average speed and quickness. A little stiff running routes and runs too upright to adjust direction well. Hard time out of breaks. Poor tracking. Often compared to Jason Witten, but Charles Davis compares him more to Brad Cottam. Played in Senior Bowl. Could turn out to be team’s starting TE and has fantasy potential in improving young offense. Likely eventual TE2.

8. Weslye Saunders , TE, Steelers, UDFA. S. Car.: Good size. Have not seen. Reportedly fast and athletic. Reportedly has good hands. Broke foot at Combine, which isn’t surprising since he seemed out of shape before that. Foot hadn’t healed by pro day. Below-average upper-body strength. Dismissed from team in September. Major character issues. Steelers have shown interest.

9. Charles Clay, TE/FB, Dolphins, 6th round. Tulsa: Short for the position, with H-back bulk. Very experienced receiver — more so than as a runner. Nice routes. Hands catcher with good vision. Slightly below-average speed and quickness. At NFL Combine as TE, though he looks more like a FB to me. Mike Mayock has compared him to Aaron Hernandez, though I see more Dorin Dickerson. Has same problem as Dickerson — where to play him? Could be FB, TE, H-back, or RB. Could play all of those in Dolphins offense. May have immediate impact on team with no established TEs. Solid TE3 right away, with TE2 potential.

10. Robert Housler, TE, Cardinals, 3rd round. Fla. Atlantic: Average size. Very good speed, tracking, arm length and concentration. Quick off the line. OK hands. Average upper-body strength. Below-average routes and has a hard time changing direction. Similar to Dan Gronkowski. Goes to team with no established TEs and a young QB who will need a safety net. Could have immediate and long-term fantasy TE2 impact.

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2010 Dynasty Draft Results

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

I belong to a dynasty fantasy football league that’s in its 3rd year now. And for those who don’t know what a “dynasty league” is, it’s a fantasy football league where the entire roster is carried over from year to year, and the draft is only for rookies. It’s a 12-team league with 29-man rosters and you start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, a TE, Kicker, and Team Defense. We held our inaugural draft in 2008 (for veterans and rookies).

Last year, which was the first time I even tried to research rookies for a fantasy draft, I realized that there wasn’t a whole lot of information online ranking only rookies. So I decided to post the results of our own draft to help other players understand where the rookies are being drafted.

And good luck in your own fantasy drafts!

First Round

1. Jahvid Best
2. Ryan Mathews
3. CJ Spiller
4. Dez Bryant
5. Sam Bradford
6. Ben Tate
7. Montario Hardesty
8. Toby Gerhart
9. Mike Williams
10. Dexter McCluster
11. Demaryius Thomas
12. Golden Tate

My pick: Just like in regular fantasy football, the RBs leapt off the board right away, with half the picks at that position, leaving my team in a tough position at #7. I desperately needed some young RBs because my top guys the past year have been Thomas Jones and LaDainian Tomlinson, and they’re going to be put out to stud in the next year or so. Should I choose the higher-rated #2 WR on my board? Or fill my biggest need with the #6 RB? In the end, I chose Hardesty over Demaryius Thomas because Hardesty should be the feature back in Cleveland. His skills match up pretty well with the West Coast offense. He’s a good receiver and blocker in addition to being a punishing runner.

Best pick: Jahvid Best as the first pick of the draft. Anyone who has seen him play knows how electric he is. His impact on the Lions offense should be huge — as long as he can stay healthy, that is. It’s a little surprising of a pick, though, because there is SO much concern about his injury history.

Biggest surprise: Actually, this 1st round went pretty close to my own rankings, so the big surprises of the 1st round were only minor. It’s a toss-up between Gerhart and Mike Williams. I had Gerhart rated #12 overall and Williams #14, so they’re not that big of a reach at this point.

Second Round

13. Arrelious Benn
14. Jimmy Clausen
15. Colt McCoy
16. Jermaine Gresham
17. LeGarrette Blount
18. Jonathan Dwyer
19. Brandon LaFell
20. Tim Tebow
21. Jimmy Graham
22. Jordan Shipley
23. Anthony Dixon
24. Eric Decker

My pick: Following a theme, here, I still wanted to beef up my RB corps, and Jonathan Dwyer is my 7th-rated RB and my 13th overall-ranked player. It was a no-brainer for me. He should fill the backup RB role in Pittsburgh in 2010, and should pay immediate dividends on a team that expects to return to its power-running roots in 2010. And if Mendenhall gets hurt or lands in the doghouse again, Dwyer should be able to pick up the slack.

Best pick: Outside of my own pick, it’s another toss-up between Brandon LaFell and Jordan Shipley. I think the 2nd round is too early to be picking project players, and a lot of guys who were picked here fall into that category. LaFell and Shipley look like they’re going to have immediate impact on their teams and be pretty reliable right out of the gate. Shipley might even have the most immediate impact of any rookie WR this year because his skills match up so well with how the Bengals want to use him — as a super-quick slot receiver with fantastic hands. LaFell should also be the starter in Carolina across from Steve Smith.

Biggest surprise: Jimmy Graham. He defines the term “project”. He only played football for one year at Miami and didn’t really show much production. He IS super athletic and has a high ceiling, and may be a big red-zone target on the high-powered Saints, but he hasn’t really shown anything at all yet. But people look at him and immediately think of Antonio Gates.

Third Round

25. Carlton Mitchell
26. Joe McKnight
27. Mardy Gilyard
28. Damian Williams
29. Emmanuel Sanders
30. James Starks
31. Taylor Price
32. John Skelton
33. Anthony Moeaki
34. Riley Cooper
35. Charles Scott
36. Abdul “Deji” Karim

My pick: There are going to be some really good players coming out of this round — and some guys who will fade into oblivion. I hope my pick, Damian Williams, the WR in Tennessee, is one of the former. He’s a really polished WR who has good speed, runs crisp routes, and is very disciplined. All three of those aspects separate him from the Titans’ 2009 rookie WR star, Kenny Britt, and might make him an even better pro than Britt. Plus, Britt is in Jeff Fisher’s doghouse because he’s out of shape and lacks work ethic. Williams was my 16th-rated player and 8th-rated WR.

Best pick: Carlton Mitchell. Everything I’ve seen and heard about this guy makes him seem like a future superstar. He has great size, speed, toughness, and good hands. Plus, he only has Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie ahead of him, really. Now, last year, I loved Robiskie (I actually drafted him in the 2nd round of the draft in 2009 because I thought he was the most pro ready of the WRs), but he did nothing. He may still bounce back, but I think Mitchell is much more talented and has a future in an improving Browns offense.

Biggest surprise: Riley Cooper. Karim was also a surprise, but I had Cooper ranked #55 overall — and the 21st-ranked WR. He’s just too far down the depth chart in Philadelphia. And even though I think he’s a solid player, there’s no way he’ll be a bigger part of the passing game than Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek.

Fourth Round

37. Andre Roberts
38. Dezmon Briscoe
39. Marcus Easley
40. Rob Gronkowski
41. David Reed
42. Tony Pike
43. Mike Kafka
44. Dorin Dickerson
45. Zac Robinson
46. Anthony McCoy
47. Jacoby Ford
48. Ed Dickson

My pick: I was really hoping that Dezmon Briscoe would fall to me at 39, but no such luck — he went one pick too early. So I settled for Marcus Easley, who could be a big contributor as a rookie starter on the Bills. Of course, that’s certainly no guarantee of success. It’s the Bills, after all. But he is a big target with OK speed and good effort. His hands are inconsistent, but they are improving. He was the #33 overall player on my list and the 14th WR.

Best pick: Dezmon Briscoe. He has great size and good speed to go along with excellent concentration, athleticism and body control. Knocks against him are his lack of upper-body strength and the fact that he seldom ran routes inside. But once Ochocinco or Antonio Bryant leave town, Briscoe will be able to step right in.

Biggest surprise: Mike Kafka. The guy who took Kafka already has Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Vince Young on his team, and to reach for a guy like Kafka is very surprising. He doesn’t fit a need and nobody thinks he has NFL-level skills or arm.

Fifth Round

49. Blair White
50. Dennis Pitta
51. Rashawn Jackson
52. David Gettis
53. Kerry Meier
54. Patrick Paschall
55. Dimitri Nance
56. Joique Bell
57. Stafon Johnson
58. Dan LeFevour
59. Matt Nichols
60. LaMarcus Coker

My pick: Blair White. He has good size, speed, strength, toughness and body control, and excellent hands. He actually reminds me a little of Austin Collie, and the fact that he’ll have Peyton Manning throwing to him for a few years means he has the potential to be as good as Collie. Unfortunately, he’s got Wayne, Garcon, Collie, and Gonzalez ahead of him, so he’ll have a hard time making an impact unless Gonzalez’s hurt more than we know and Wayne holds out.

Best pick: Outside of my own, I think Dennis Pitta and Dimitri Nance have the best chance of contributing in the near and long term.

Biggest surprise: Rashawn Jackson. I saw him at the Senior Bowl practices and even though he looked pretty solid as a runner and blocker, he has virtually no chance of ever producing fantasy numbers. First, he’s a fullback. Second, he’s on the Panthers, with 4 or 5 backs ahead of him in the pecking order.

By the way, the second half of this round has a lot of intriguing players to watch. Paschall, Bell, Johnson, and Coker are all RBs who have good NFL skills and just need a break or two. And LeFevour was actually my 4th-rated QB before he had the misfortune to land behind Cutler in Chicago. So he has some game and is another one who just needs a chance. Nichols should supplant Stephen McGee as the 3rd QB on Dallas, and should pass Kitna as the top backup by 2011. And Romo will be 32 by then, so Nichols’s chance might come sooner than expected.

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2010 NFL Rookie Impact

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

Every August, when my dynasty fantasy football league holds its rookie draft, I always promise myself that nobody at the table will be as well prepared as I am. And if you’re like me, you want to be able to get a head start on not only this year, but next year and the year after that. You want to know who will be the big pickup before the next guy has even heard of the player.

And you’re OK with people thinking you made a bad draft pick as long as they sit back in wonder when that player comes out of nowhere to dominate.

Some of the players on this list don’t fit that bill. I mean, everybody knows that Sam Bradford will be the Rams starting QB. Those are the “Immediate Impact” players in this list. Then there are the guys who you can draft this year and know that they’ll be solid next year. And if you really want to look ahead, there are some players to keep in mind for 2012 and beyond. And there are even some names that are still unsigned and undrafted that you should keep in mind.

Immediate Impact
Like the heading says, these are the guys who should step in and be major contributors some time very early in their rookie seasons.

Sam Bradford: Should start from day one. Only thing holding him back from good production is team’s uncertain WR depth chart. They have good ones, but they’re all young. When he’s settled, will be a Pro Bowl-level QB.
Ryan Mathews: Norv Turner has already said that Mathews will get around 300 touches his first year, and that should be good for around 1500 total yards in 2010. And the next few years seem really bright for him. Only knock is that he hasn’t been durable.
Ben Tate: One of the more underrated backs in the draft, he goes to a perfect situation in Houston without a clear-cut #1 RB. He’s better than anyone they have on the team except for Steve Slaton, and if Slaton comes back from injury, Houston will have a dominant run game to go along with its elite passing game.
CJ Spiller: A playmaker on a team that hasn’t had one for years. Will team with Fred Jackson to be great 1-2 punch on offense. And even their QBs can throw the ball on flare passes to get Spiller open. Should sniff 1000 total yards and also help in the return game.
Jahvid Best: To me, he’s almost exactly like Spiller, but slightly less durable. He’s entering an offense on the Lions that is a complete 180 from where it was just 2 years ago. With Stafford, Johnson, Burleson, Pettigrew, and Scheffler, this should be a dynamic offense with Best a major contributor.
Montario Hardesty: I don’t like his skills as much as I like his situation. Though Jerome Harrison lit it up for the Browns at RB at the end of 2009, he’s more of a complementary back. Hardesty is a pounding between-the-tackles type with better quickness than you’d think. And he should start for them. He’s had injury problems throughout his career.
Joe McKnight: He’ll almost immediately take over the role Leon Washington is bringing to Seattle. Really more of a WR than RB, he needs to work on blocking before he’s a big-time contributor. But his speed and quickness are excellent.
Jermaine Gresham: The Bengals have rebuilt their passing game this offseason, adding the more dynamic Antonio Bryant across from Chad Ochocinco. They only needed a top-flight TE to roam the middle of the defense. Gresham has the talent to be a top-5 TE right away.
Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez: I lump them together because they were both drafted by the Patriots and both are dynamic playmakers at the TE position. They both have the talent to start immediately, but Gronkowski’s the better all-around TE. Hernandez is the H-back type. Either one could light it up in 2010.
Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson: The Ravens offense works so much better when it can throw to the TE. When Todd Heap has been healthy, that hasn’t been a problem. But Heap’s officially on his last legs and Pitta and Dickson were drafted to provide that. If either of them learns how to block, they’ll be excellent targets for Flacco on medium-range throws.

2011 Impact
While these guys have definite talent, they are not in the perfect situations. Some have established starters ahead of them. Some just need a little seasoning. All could be major contributors to your fantasy squad by next year.

Dez Bryant: Depending on whether the team gives Roy Williams yet another chance to prove he was worth the haul it cost to get him, Bryant may or may not get a chance to shine in 2010. But by 2011, he’ll definitely be a force in the NFL. And if Miles Austin’s contract situation doesn’t clear up, Bryant may be their only guy.
Jimmy Clausen: The Panthers like Matt Moore to start in 2010, but the team drafted Clausen for a reason. He should start by 2011, but on a run-first team like the Panthers, his fantasy impact will be muted.
Demaryius Thomas: He’s a raw route runner, but his size, speed, and intelligence make him a potential fantasy stud once he settles. That could happen in 2010, but will definitely happen by next year.
Damian Williams: The Titans drafted Kenny Britt last year and he’s now their clear #1 WR. And while Justin Gage and Nate Washington are quality receivers, Damian Williams’s route running, hands, and speed will get him a big role on the team in 2010. By 2011, he should start, and may put up numbers surpassing Britt’s
Carlton Mitchell: I liked the Massaquoi and Robiskie WR picks in the 2009 draft, but the production was limited by a bad QB situation. Mitchell is like a combination of the best aspects of both of those guys — a big WR who can run and has good hands. He’ll start over one of them — probably Robiskie — but the offense won’t gel for another year or so.
Dez Briscoe: Though the Bengals’ offense has been upgraded this year, Chad Ochocinco’s not getting any younger. And while dancing may be a great workout, his years are very limited — every WR hits a wall in his 30s. Briscoe’s a tall playmaker in waiting who needs to get stronger to escape press coverage, but could be huge once he gets his chance.
Ryan Perilloux: If Favre retires after this year, the Vikings need a QB of the future (especially if they think Jackson isn’t it. Perilloux was one of the top QB recruits out of high school when he went to LSU, but he ran into legal trouble there and transferred to Jacksonville St., where he was very effective. Has elite arm strength and excellent mechanics and mobility whose game is similar to Favre’s when he came out of college. Not saying, I’m just saying.
Arrelious Benn: On a Bucs team without a true #1, Benn should fill that role right away, but the team’s offensive growing pains will limit Benn’s production in his first year. After that, he’s only limited by Josh Freeman’s ability.
Patrick Paschall: He goes to a Patriots team that is always an enigma when it comes to RBs. But he has high ability running both inside and outside who excels in open space and has excellent stop-and-start ability. He’s probably the team’s best RB right now, but he only needs a chance.
Taylor Price: The Patriots WR corps is pretty stacked, with Moss, Welker (if he comes back from injury), Edelman, Holt, and Brandon Tate, so Price may have to wait his turn. But he has great speed and quickness and is a pretty solid route runner. I see him teaming with Tate and Edelman to form a promising young WR group next year.
Eric Decker: In the mold of a classic possession receiver. He has great size and good speed, quickness, and strength. Doesn’t offer much in the way of creativity, but with Royal and Thomas on the team, he has a shot to be productive.
Emmanuel Sanders: Mike Mayock the NFL Network draft expert, has Sanders rated as the #4 WR in this draft class. I don’t see him as quite that special, but he has the speed, quickness and hands to be very solid. And with Holmes gone and Hines Ward aging, he could be a major part of the offense come 2011.
Brandon LaFell: The Panthers have been looking for that #2 WR for years, and they found a Muhsin Muhammad clone here. He doesn’t have great hands — though he makes the circus catch — but he has good speed and he’s good after the catch.
Colin Peek: The Falcons have little at TE behind Tony Gonzalez, and Peek has excellent hands and adequate blocking skills (though they need to improve). If Gonzalez retires, Peek’s worth a peel.

Long-Range Contributors
These are players who look like they may have some value in 2012 and beyond. For the most part, these are guys who will be backups for a couple of years but have the skills to be solid NFL starters some day — and contributors to fantasy teams.

Colt McCoy: Seems to be the Browns’ QB of the future, with only Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace ahead of him. Has talent and skill set to succeed in West Coast offense.
Golden Tate: Playmaker on a team without any of those. Should be #3 WR on team right away, with starting potential at some point.
Charles Scott: Backup to LeSean McCoy at first, will go through some growing pains until he learns to block — a prerequisite in the Andy Reid offense. Really strong, and should fill the old Correll Buckhalter role on the Eagles.
Tim Tebow: We all know the story, and I think he needs at least two years of grooming by one of the great QB gurus in the game — Josh McDaniels — before he’s game ready. Don’t think he’ll ever set the world on fire again, but could be solid player.
James Starks: Green Bay had backup RB worries all last year, and Starks should be the guy this year. But he won’t have real fantasy value until Ryan Grant leaves town. He’s a good receiver who runs with both power and finesse.
Zac Robinson: The Patriots rolled the dice last year by only having Brian Hoyer as Tom Brady’s backup. Zac Robinson’s better than Hoyer, and should be their #2 right away. Then he’s only a heartbeat away from Gisele –I mean, the starting QB job on the high-octane Patriots.
John Skelton: He’s a very raw but high-ceiling QB prospect on a team that may or may not be sold on Matt Leinart as its starting QB. Leinart’s a restricted FA in 2012, and that’s when Skelton may be ready to fly. And he has the skills to be an excellent starter if given the chance.
Dimitri Nance: We saw Michael Turner wear down last year after his 400-carry season in 2008. To lighten the wear on him, Nance will be a good choice. And since power backs like Turner wear out their time in the league pretty fast, Nance should see meaningful time fairly early in his career. Think Shonn Greene with slightly less power but slightly better receiving skills.
David Reed: The Ravens are still unsure if Derrick Mason’s coming back in 2010, and with only Anquan Boldin as sure-fire target on the team, Reed could make fairly immediate impact. Is similar to Boldin in that he has good hands and concentration and knows how to take a hit, but doesn’t have great speed.

Unsigned Talent
Because this draft was so stacked with talent, it was inevitable that some players wouldn’t get a shot at a team — either by being drafted or signing as an undrafted free agent (UDFA). Here are some of the players to watch if they should get picked up this offseason.

Roy Upchurch: Displays both power and 3rd-down ability. Protects ball well and lowers pads to deliver a hit instead of taking one. Good vision, acceleration and speed. Great stop-and-start ability for the size. Reminds me of Bernard Scott. Needs to get stronger lower body to be able to move pile and improve his blocking leverage.
Danario Alexander: Great size. Good speed. Has good vision after the catch, running smoothly. Shows good effort and hands on outside routes, though his concentration lapses over the middle and he seems to shy away from contact. Needs to learn to use his size to be more physical. Is a long strider who has trouble making crisp cuts, running routes and gaining separation. Has had three knee surgeries and is coming off a postseason injury.
LaMarcus Coker: Coker was my deep sleeper pick of the draft a couple of months ago, but it looks like teams were more leery of his background than I expected. He’s super fast and very elusive and has OK size.
Damola Adeniji: Great size. Very good hands and good speed. Productive in bowl game. Strong and doesn’t go down with first contact.
Greg Bolling: Tough receiver with good speed. Presents good red-zone target.
Gerald Baptiste: Possession receiver with average size. Good speed. Good change of direction. Good hands in traffic. Saints have shown interest.
Joe Cox: Ran a pro-style offense at Georgia. Accurate on short and intermediate throws. Has good touch. Doesn’t have great arm strength. Has long windup. Not a pressure performer.
LaRon Council: In Cactus Bowl, was game’s best rusher, with 55 yards on 10 attempts. Also an effective receiver, with 26 yards on 2 catches. Good stiff-arm and nice quickness to outside, though he was primarily an inside runner. Average speed, but very good vision. Strong lower body and keeps feet moving after contact. Good hands as receiver. Average upper-body strength.

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From 2010: What Does Marshall Trade Mean to Dolphins?

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

For the second straight year, the Denver Broncos have made a blockbuster trade that loses them their best offensive player but nets them some premium draft picks. And if you’re counting, the trades of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall have returned two first-round picks and three second-round picks. And since first and second rounders are the guys who are supposed to have immediate positive impact on your team, they have gotten potentially five starters for the price of two headaches.

So now that Josh McDaniels has finally and definitively put his stamp on the Broncos, what does this Marshall trade do for the Dolphins?

First, it gives them the true number-one WR they’ve been missing for years. Ted Ginn was supposed to be that guy when he was drafted, but he was a reach even then and he’s performed like it most of his career. Now the team can safely unload him and still have a vastly improved offense. And let’s face it — a WR corps of Ginn, Bess, Camarillo, Hartline, and Turner is Cleveland Browns-like in its blahness, but a WR corps of Marshall, Bess, and either Hartline, Camarillo or Turner has to concern defensive coordinators.

Chad Henne showed some improvement last year as the starting QB, but he was really restricted to dumpoffs and short-to-intermediate routes. The addition of Marshall changes the dynamic. It’s such a huge help for a QB to be able to just heave the ball up there sometime and be reasonably assured that your guy is going to be able to come down with it. That’s what Marshall can do. He’s basically an H-back with the speed of a WR — a big target with the hands to make the circus catch. He’ll be able to get deep as well as use his size to run intermediate crossing patterns.

And with Davone Bess getting open on short crossing patterns, slants, and outs — this move also allows the Dolphins to spread the field. It gives Bess — one of the most underrated young receivers in the game — to have even more space to operate. There aren’t many receivers in the league who know how to get open over the middle like Bess. And defenses will have to try to defend two WRs who know how to get open and snag the ball.

Who will be the third receiver? Last year, they drafted Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline hoping that one of them could be THE GUY, and of the two, Hartline showed the most immediate ability. Turner was a bit of a sensation before last year’s draft because of his size and toughness, but his underachieving college career turned quickly into an underachieving pro career in his rookie season. Regardless, I think the third receiver on this team (probably Hartline) will be like JJ Stokes was on the 49ers teams of the 1990s — always on the verge of being relevant. But the numbers from the position will go up from last year.

Marshall’s presence will also pay huge dividends for the Miami running game. Even last year, when defenses could afford to stack the line against Brown and Williams, they were already one of the most productive rushing attacks in the league at number four. With their new WR corps, defenses will have to loosen up, making the backs even more efficient. They may not improve their rushing yards, because I think they’ll run it a little less now that they have a viable passing attack. But I bet their yards per attempt go up. Look for the Miami passing attack to flirt with the top 10 and the rushing numbers to be about the same.

From a fantasy perspective, I don’t expect Marshall’s numbers to change much from the past two years. But look for Henne to become a fringe fantasy starter. And Bess, even though his yards might not increase much, he may get a few more TDs than he’s used to. And whoever is their third WR is basically bench material. Of the RBs, I don’t expect much change in overall numbers except for YPA. And a lot of that group depends on whether Ronnie Brown is still on the team after his injury and recent DUI arrest.

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2010 Draft: Who Will Surprise?

Posted on August 11, 2011 by FreelanceScribe.com

Every draft, there are guys who seem to come out of nowhere. And every year, there are guys who get super-hyped who never amount to anything. Most of the hype is reserved for offensive players unless you have a guy like Bruce Campbell tearing up the Combine. “Hail to the King, baby!”

Figuring out which are which is why personnel guys get paid the big bucks. But since I’m doing this on a free blog, I ain’t gettin’ paid nothin’ for my opinion. And maybe that’s exactly what my opinion’s worth, so here’s a heap of it…

It’s easy to get excited by the explosive potential of a CJ Spiller or Jahvid Best — guys who can take it all the way every time they touch the ball. Me? I love the guys that are going to be super-solid, grind-it-out backs who won’t necessarily have to be subbed out on third downs.

Topping that list for me are two guys who aren’t getting anywhere near the hype that I think they deserve: Toby Gerhart and Ben Tate. They’re likely to last to at least the third round, but I put their potential at just behind the guys in my top three this year: Ryan Mathews, CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best. Sure, Gerhart was the Heisman runner-up, but it seems like either everyone is disregarding him because they think he’s just another big, plodding guy or because “Heisman” equals “bust” (Rashaan Salaam anyone?). And Tate is generally lumped in the 7th to 10th-best backs in the draft.

Gerhart has great size and power and good speed, which he also showed off at the Combine. He’s a Brandon Jacobs-type pile-pusher and workhorse who can’t be arm-tackled. He protects the ball well through hole and has above-average quickness to get through the line. Tate also has good size and he’s a tenacious runner who always seems to give great effort. He has quick feet that help him find holes in the line and he keeps his legs moving after contact. His lower body is strong, and he has average explosiveness. He actually reminds me of Shonn Greene, but maybe better, because he’s also a stout blocker. He reminds me of Greene, too, because he’s not a natural-looking receiver.

Other backs who can definitely be gotten later in the draft but who I think can have solid careers in complementary roles include Charles Scott and Stafon Johnson — who will probably go around the 5th round — and LaMarcus Coker (my sleeper pick of the year). Scott and Johnson both have slight injury concerns — Tate’s coming off of a shoulder injury that kept him out of LSU’s bowl game and the Senior Bowl. And Johnson’s the guy — if you haven’t heard about this, it’s horrifying — who dropped a barbell on his throat early last fall while bench-pressing. He still talks with a raspy voice.

Scott’s game is very similar to Tate, but he’s bigger and a little slower. Johnson — the leading rusher at USC in 2008 — is a little different. He has average size, but he’s effective both inside and outside — with a nice stutter step to find holes in the line. He’s not blazing fast, but he runs close to the ground, with very good balance and stop-and-start ability, and he gets up to speed immediately. And he has good vision and sets up his blockers well. He’s also effective in short-yardage, where he lowers his pads well to deliver hits. He’s also a better-than-average receiver and an adequate blocker.

Coker is a guy who might not even be drafted, but I think he can carve out a niche as a Bernard Scott-type complementary back. He has character issues, but a really high ceiling. Check out my article on him here.

This draft is also very heavy on project QBs who may turn out to be quality NFL starters. They’re not getting the hype that Bradford, Clausen, McCoy, LeFevour and Pike are getting, but their ceiling (in some cases) may be even higher. The list includes Jonathan Crompton, Tim Tebow, Zac Robinson, John Skelton, Jevan Snead, Jarrett Brown, Sean Canfield, Ryan Perilloux, Matt Nichols, Max Hall, Mike Kafka, Bill Stull and Daryl Clark. Not all of these guys are going to be drafted, but they’ll all be in camps come training camp. They might take a few years to develop, but they’re definitely worth a look. And you can see concise scouting reports on all these by clicking here. http://sportsnation.espn.go.com/fans/Mohktal#/fans/Mohktal/blog/posts/104706

Of the wide receivers in this draft, one of the biggest surprises to me is that Dezmon Briscoe is getting ranked so low in most lists. I have him top-five, but most lists show him in the 10-12 range. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Hakeem Nicks last year, but bigger. He has great size, though he could stand to put on a little more muscle. Still, he moves smoothly for his size. Like Nicks, he shows excellent concentration and hands and adjusts well to underthrown passes. His field speed is adequate, though he ran a little slowly at the Combine. He also has nice sideline awareness and foot control and good after-the-catch ability.

Other receivers who will surprise are Blair White and Freddie Barnes. White probably has more potential as a starter, because of his size. Here’s his scouting report. He’s a physical receiver who isn’t afraid to go over the middle and also has strength and willingness to fight for extra yards. Runs good routes, showing very good quickness and body control for a man his size. Also sets up defenders well to get open. Great work ethic and goes after every pass. Good foot control on sideline. Good hands catcher most of the time, though lets ball get to body occasionally. Looks like a valuable second or third receiver.

Barnes is going to get by on his polish and route-running. Here’s his scouting report: Average size and speed. Great hands and good body control and acceleration. Savvy receiver who runs excellent routes and sets up defenders well to get open. Also sets up blockers well after catch. Has NCAA record for most catches in a season, with 155 — 17 in bowl game. Just looks smooth on field. Not a natural returner, but has sure hands and intelligence so he won’t hurt his team if used in that position.

There is a lot of offensive value in this draft. It all depends on what you’re looking for. But if your team has a lot of needs to fill, they can definitely afford to wait until the middle and later rounds to pick up some of these value guys.

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