Now that the inevitable has become reality and Brett Favre is finally a Viking, what does it mean?

Going back over Favre’s game logs from 2005-2008, I count 26 games where he had either a sub-Favrian effort or had a monumentally bad effort (including one game where he threw 5 INTs). On the other hand, he only had 22 games where he produced good to very good numbers (including one where he threw 6 TDs).

The upshot is that when he’s good, he can be very good. But when he’s bad, he can be Henry Burris bad or Jonathan Quinn bad (you Bears fans will understand that one).

Of course, I’m not exactly breaking any ground in this finding. People have said for years that he is declining. And barring his magical resurgence 2007 with the Pack, the past five years have seen some pretty bad QB play from number 4. But it does bring up the question of what he brings to the table with the Vikings. Would they have been (gasp!) better off with Rosenfels or Jackson under center?

Well, Rosenfels is a safe passer, for the most part. And nobody was ever going to ask him to win games for the Vikings — they already have A.P. and the Williams Wall to do that for them. All he was going to be asked to do was get the ball on short and intermediate throws to Harvin and Rice, with the occasional post or fly to Berrian on the move. That, and hand it off. Safe. Efficient. Grind the other team to pulp. And they would win a lot of games that way. It’s questionable whether they would win in the playoffs, though.

What about Jackson. Well, what about him? He has talent but he generally hasn’t gotten it done. He may get you more big plays than Rosenfels, but he’ll give it to the other team, too — putting even more pressure on his own defense to win the game. That’s not a winning formula.

Point is, neither one of their QBs guaranteed a long playoff run. Does Favre? He’s definitely more physically talented than the others. And if he can tone down the hired-gun mentality just a bit and depend on the team’s other playmakers to make the plays rather than always trying to make something out of nothing, then yeah, I think the Vikings are serious Super Bowl contenders right up there with the Steelers and Giants.

Favre needs to realize that the team can carry each other, and that he’s not the team. Take the outlet to Shiancoe or Peterson and don’t try to force it down the middle. If he’s on the run, don’t always throw it back across your body to the middle of the field where it will be picked off. The team was already good enough to win most of its games without him. And if he can add just a little more talent to the QB crew, then Favre can finally get that second ring.

Fantasy Spin
The fact that Favre CAN and WILL throw to the deep half of the field means that defenses won’t be able to stack the line to stop the running game. And they won’t do as many run blitzes, either, preferring to keep a man in coverage. So Peterson and Taylor might just be able to combine for 2500 yards and make either one valuable fantasy starters if the offensive game plan doesn’t change much from 2008. But I don’t think Childress is going to be able to avoid trying to use his new toy. He’ll call more pass plays than last year. And that means that we’ll see pretty much the same output from the running backs as last year — at least 1500 and 10 TDs from A.P. and around 500 yards and 5 from Taylor.

But more pass plays means you can probably move up the entire receiving corps a few slots, but especially Berrian, who might see 1200 yards and 10 TDs. The other starter — whether it’s Wade or Sidney Rice — can probably get upwards of 700 yards and 5 TDs. Favre has always used the tight ends effectively, and I think Shiancoe’s talented enough to be one of the top 3 or 4 in the league this year.

The wildcard here is Percy Harvin, the rookie out of Florida who has been an offensive centerpiece of the game plan this offseason. If he can learn how to run good routes, which was a concern for some because he didn’t really do that in college, he can be an effective weapon. And I saw some of his Pro Day footage and I don’t think routes are going to be a problem for him. Injuries… maybe. But he might even be the most dynamic receiver in the league since Steve Smith. And he’ll even see some running plays. If they can get it to him in space on screens or crossing patterns, he’s going to be a dangerous weapon. Fantasy-wise, he could be a 1200-total-yard guy who gets around 8 TDs this year. In 2010 and beyond, who knows? All bets are off once Favre leaves.